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Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Week 5 Fantasy matchups sit or start

After going 14-2 with my game predictions in Week 3, I followed it up with a solid 12-2 mark in Week 4. For those scoring at home, and those that warned me that I needed to be publicly accountable for my picks, I’m now 26-4 through two weeks. To think, if I had any clue as to how to read the Tennessee Titans … Alright, here’s the early jump on Week 5. Week 5 Preview A snapshot of each Week 5 matchup CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BUFFALO BILLS Key Stats: BROWNS – 4.8 YPC allowed | 227 YPG passing allowed BILLS – 5.4 YPC allowed | 227 YPG passing allowed | 11 sacks What to watch for: BUF can get after the QB, and CLE can’t protect its signal-caller very well. But injuries in the BUF secondary could tempt the Browns to fire it downfield often on Sunday. QB Derek Anderson(notes) chucked it 48 times against CIN in Week 4, and the Browns nearly pulled out their first victory. Interestingly enough, Anderson targeted rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi(notes) 13 times compared to just 5 looks for WR Braylon Edwards(notes), who apparently took his frustrations out on LeBron James’ 130-pound friend. I suspect Edwards will rebound against BUF, but the 0-catch performance in Week 4 to go with the off-the-field incident puts him directly under the caution flag for this week. The ground game should be open for business as BUF yields the 3rd-most FAN PPG to RBs – RBs Pierre Thomas(notes) and Ronnie Brown(notes) have burned the Bills for 100+ rushing yards and two TDs apiece the past two weeks. As a fantasy owner, feel good about whoever starts for CLE, be it RB Jamal Lewis(notes) or backup RB Jerome Harrison(notes) – 29/121 in Week 4. CLE allows 5.4 YPC on the ground and opponents have converted a NFL-high 31 percent of rush attempts into 1st downs. Given those numbers, it’s easy to understand why CLE is the 4th-most run upon team in the NFL. With RB Marshawn Lynch(notes) back in the fold, it seems pretty obvious that it will be a full-meal backfield combo deal for the Bills on Sunday with Lynch and RB Fred Jackson(notes). But the 50/50 timeshare has become a reality, and a buzz-kill for Jackson and Lynch owners. CLE has also been susceptible to the deep ball, as it has allowed 14 pass plays of 20+ yards, 5th-most in the league. That said, it hasn’t been the burners at the WR position that have victimized CLE, and I think it’s risky to assume that WR Lee Evans(notes) will be any better than he was last week (2/60). Same goes for WR Terrell Owens(notes) (3/60 in Week 4), who has just 8 catches through four games. QB Trent Edwards(notes) has yet to throw more than 35 times or top 230 passing yards this season (and yet BUF has still allowed the most QB sacks – 16), and there’s nothing to lead me to believe this will be the week that changes. Buffalo Defense, Fred Jackson, Derek Anderson, Jerome Harrison Trent Edwards, Terrell Owens, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Braylon Edwards Joshua Cribbs(notes), Robert Royal(notes), Derek Fine(notes), Cleveland Defense Sleeper: Mohamed Massaquoi, Jerome Harrison Injuries: CLE RB Jamal Lewis (hamstring) is likely to be questionable; BUF CB Leodis McKelvin(notes) (leg) is out; BUF FS Donte Whitner(notes) (thumb) is likely to be questionable; BF LB Paul Posluszny(notes) (forearm) is out Prediction: Buffalo 24, Cleveland 19 DALLAS COWBOYS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS Key Stats: COWBOYS – 4.7 YPC allowed | 256 YPG passing allowed CHIEFS – 4.1 YPC allowed | 251 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: As the NYG proved in Week 4, KC is still a team that can be run on – 33 carries, 4.7 YPC allowed v. the Giants. DAL has taken a run-heavy approach this season, but it is dealing with health issues in the ground game that could carry over into Sunday. RB Marion Barber(notes) had his quad tighten up on him in Week 4 and it could be that the team goes more exclusively to RB Tashard Choice(notes) against KC. Choice had just 14 carries for 33 yards in Week 4, but his opponent, DEN, has thwarted almost all RB comers this season. Feel confident about this one, Choice owners. As for QB Tony Romo(notes), he’s riding his first career two-game streak without a TD pass. Frankly, his WR corps is not giving him much help – and now WR Roy Williams is dealing with a ribcage injury (consider him a “yellow light” option if he plays on Sunday). I’d expect that after connecting just four times (for 31 yards) with TE Jason Witten(notes) in Week 4, he’ll be showered with love and attention by Romo on Sunday. Witten just needs the looks – he’s caught 23 of 27 passes thrown at him, thus far – only PIT TE Heath Miller(notes) has a better completion percentage among those that have been targeted at least 20 times this season. KC is operating the 7th-worst offense in the league (16 PPG), yet somehow QB Matt Cassel(notes) is managing to post at least serviceable fantasy numbers – 5 TD passes, 58 rushing yards combined in his past 3 games. DAL has allowed at least a TD pass and 220 passing yards to each of the four QBs it has faced and, other than Eli Manning(notes), that hasn’t exactly been an illustrious group – Byron Leftwich(notes), Jake Delhomme(notes), Kyle Orton(notes). It’s a big QB bye week (Aaron Rodgers(notes), Jay Cutler(notes), Drew Brees(notes), Philip Rivers(notes)), so if you are forced to roll with Cassel this week, it’s not the worst-case scenario. RB Larry Johnson(notes) has faced some stiff competition, which could help explain why he has yet to top 3.3 YPC in a game this season. But the fact of the matter is that he’s not the RB he once was, and the O-line in front of him is an even further cry from the KC ground game glories of a few seasons ago. You can look at the 4.7 YPC that DAL allows and think that this is the game that LJ breaks out, but DAL has been very stout since TB ran all over the Cowboys in Week 1. Since then, DAL has shut down the ground advances of Brandon Jacobs(notes), DeAngelo Williams(notes) and Knowshon Moreno(notes). RB Jamaal Charles(notes) is a dynamic talent and he’d be handling the pigskin more often if he could hang onto it. His fumble on the opening kickoff in Week 4 has set him back to square one, and I’m through touting him as a sleeper for now – clearly, head coach Todd Haley is afraid to commit to him. Jason Witten, Tony Romo, Tashard Choice, Dallas Defense Matt Cassel, Dwayne Bowe(notes), Patrick Crayton(notes), Marion Barber Roy Williams, Martellus Bennett(notes), Larry Johnson, Bobby Wade(notes), Mark Bradley(notes), Jamaal Charles, Sean Ryan(notes), Kansas City Defense Sleeper: Sam Hurd(notes) Injuries: DAL RB Marion Barber (quad) could be questionable; DAL WR Roy Williams (ribs) could be questionable; DAL C Andre Gurode(notes) (knee) could be out; DAL SS Gerald Sensabaugh(notes) (thumb) is out Prediction: Dallas 24, Kansas City 17 MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS Key Stats: VIKES – 3.7 YPC allowed | 211 YPG passing allowed | 16 sacks RAMS – 4.1 YPC allowed | 225 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: STL has allowed 13 pass plays of 20+ yards and the 4th-highest QB rating to opposing QBs (100.2). If QB Brett Favre(notes) needs to, he can make it happen on Sunday with his arm. But that likely won’t be necessary. MIN is the 6th-most run-heavy offensive attack in the league and it should be able to move the chains via RBs Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor(notes) without too much trouble. That said, STL allows the 7th-most FAN PPG to QBs (3 of 4 QBs faced have thrown for at least 2 TD passes) and Favre will likely try to take advantage of some aerial opportunities. WRs Bernard Berrian(notes), Sidney Rice(notes) and Percy Harvin(notes) are starting to bunch together in terms of fantasy value, and there doesn’t seem to be an obvious reason why one would stand out better than the other in this contest. They are all reasonable plays, but I’m flying Rice and Berrian under the caution flag because there’s a good chance that both could come up light in what should be a conservative effort from MIN – because of his athleticism and versatility, I’m not as comfortable discounting Harvin. STL has been generous to TEs, but TE Visanthe Shiancoe(notes) has yet to top 26 yards alongside Favre. He’s a reasonable bye-week filler, but hardly a slam dunk. STL is scoring a league-low 6 PPG. And backup QB Kyle Boller(notes) may be forced to man the helm of the offense one more week. It’s as bleak as can be imagined in Rams country right now. The only entity keeping this team on life support remains RB Steven Jackson, who is 4th in the NFL in rushing yards. But he hasn’t found pay dirt yet and MIN has yet to allow a RB into the end zone this season. I have a feeling that S-Jax breaches the goal line on Sunday, and turns out respectable yardage totals, if only because of the sheer size of his workload. TE Randy McMichael(notes) is a deep league intrigue for the reason that MIN allows the most FAN PPG to TEs. But you can’t really consider anyone else on this squad right now. And I don’t think you need me to spell it out in more detail than that. Adrian Peterson, Brett Favre, Percy Harvin, Minnesota Defense, Steven Jackson Sidney Rice, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe Kyle Boller, Donnie Avery(notes), Keenan Burton(notes), St. Louis Defense Sleeper: Chester Taylor, Randy McMichael Injuries: STL QB Marc Bulger(notes) (rotator cuff) is expected to be questionable; STL T Jason Smith(notes) (knee) could be questionable Prediction: Minnesota 27, St. Louis 10 OAKLAND RAIDERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS Key Stats: RAIDERS – 4.0 YPC allowed | 211 YPG passing allowed GIANTS – 5.5 YPC allowed | 115 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: DAL ran wild on NYG in Week 2, but nobody else has. That game has skewed NYG’s YPC allowed average (5.5). As I stated last week, don’t let that number fool you. And don’t think RBs Michael Bush(notes) and/or Justin Fargas(notes) are viable plays this week – I have Bush down as a sleeper if only because he should see more work with Darren McFadden(notes) out, and he’s the goal-line option. I cut TE Zach Miller before Week 4, and I haven’t had a moment of regret. Miller is an excellent talent that is completely wasted by the worst passing attack in the league – Miller is also dealing with a concussion suffered in Week 4. If OAK really is committed to starting QB JaMarcus Russell(notes) the entire season, I really don’t see where they’ll win another game, save Week 10 v. KC. By the way, I failed to mention that this game pits the worst passing attack in the NFL against the top pass defense in the NFL – ouch! Here’s all you need to know on the Giants side of the equation: NYG is 2nd in league in rushing attempts, OAK has had the most rush attempts against its defense, and QB Eli Manning has a sore foot. RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) are “green light” specials yet again. But the rushing game will allow Manning to make big plays in the passing game – Manning ranks behind only his brother and Philip Rivers in the number of pass plays of 20+ yards. But just remember that CB Nnamdi Asomugha(notes) is still a legit terror threat to opposing No. 1 WRs – Vincent Jackson(notes), Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall(notes) and Andre Johnson(notes) have all walked away from an OAK contest with fewer than 70 yards this season – and Manning will be limited in the passing game more than usual because of the foot injury. That makes new-found go-to WR Steve Smith a bit sketchy this week. I’d fly both he and Manningham under the caution flag this week, but I suspect Manningham, who snagged just one of 8 targets in Week 4, may see a return to the spotlight this week. TE Kevin Boss(notes) has just one red zone target this season and OAK does a decent job shutting down opposing TEs, so avoiding Boss, who is dealing with an ankle sprain, this week is a prudent move. Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Defense Mario Manningham(notes), Steve Smith Kevin Boss, JaMarcus Russell, Louis Murphy(notes), Darrius Heyward-Bey(notes), Justin Fargas, Oakland Defense Sleeper: Hakeem Nicks(notes), Michael Bush Injuries: OAK RB Darren McFadden (knee) is likely to be out; OAK TE Zach Miller (concussion) could be questionable; OAK T Cornell Green(notes) (calf) is likely to be questionable; OAK S Tyvon Branch(notes) (groin) could be out; NYG QB Eli Manning (foot) could be questionable; NYG TE Kevin Boss (ankle) could be questionable; NYG LB Michael Boley(notes) (knee) is likely to be out; NYG CB Aaron Ross(notes) (hamstring) could be out; Prediction: New York 31, Oakland 13 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES Key Stats: BUCS – 4.8 YPC allowed | 222 YPG passing allowed EAGLES – 3.6 YPC allowed | 156 YPG passing allowed | 10 sacks What to watch for: QB Josh Johnson(notes) threw for just 106 yards in his NFL starting debut in Week 4. But he ran for 41 yards, and he’ll likely have to rely heavily on those legs again on Sunday against a PHI defense that has 10 sacks in just three games. PHI gets after the QB with a blitz-heavy approach, and CBs Asante Samuel(notes) and Sheldon Brown(notes) can make life miserable for receivers. So Johnson will likely turn to RB Carnell Williams(notes) early and often – the dump pass could be heavily utilized as RBs have averaged 57 receiving YPG against PHI this season. Assuming Derrick Ward(notes) is out of action again (knee), I like Williams’ potential this week. WR Antonio Bryant(notes) re-emerged with a TD catch and a 27-yard reception in Week 4 after knee swelling limited him the first three weeks of the season. He’s looking the healthiest that we’ve seen him in ’09, but he’s a hard one to rely on this week given the opponent and the inexperience of Johnson. If anyone excels in the passing game for TB, it’s likely to be TE Kellen Winslow(notes), as the PHI LBs and Safeties are the weakest links in the Eagles’ defensive chain. QB Donovan McNabb(notes) returned to practice this week, and his timing works well for his fantasy owners as he’ll face a TB pass defense that has allowed 2+ TD passes to each of the four starting QBs it has faced. It has also allowed a QB Rating of 101.1, third-worst in the NFL behind TEN and DET. And the mere 6 QB sacks that TB has produced helps eliminate the worry of McNabb’s ribs taking a pounding in his first game back. Under head coach Andy Reid, PHI has consistently ranked among the most pass-happy offenses in the league. With RB Brian Westbrook(notes) also back to weekday workouts, Reid has all his offensive guns to work with. Don’t be surprised if Westbrook is heavily involved on the ground and through the air in the first half of this one and, assuming a nice lead is built, rookie RB LeSean McCoy(notes) could get a sizeable piece of the action in the second half. TB has allowed a league-high 6 pass plays of 40+ yards, a fact that makes game-breaking WR DeSean Jackson(notes) even more of a slam dunk than usual. Three TEs have surpassed the 60-yard mark against TB this season, so TE Brent Celek(notes), who leads TEs in FAN PPG, needs to be active. Also, something to keep in mind in what could be a route for PHI, reserve WR Jason Avant(notes) leads all WRs with 7 red zone targets this season. Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, Philadelphia Defense, Carnell Williams Kellen Winslow Josh Johnson, Antonio Bryant, Michael Clayton(notes), Tampa Bay Defense Sleeper: LeSean McCoy, Jason Avant Injuries: TB RB Derrick Ward (knee) could be questionable Prediction: Philadelphia 34, Tampa Bay 12 PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ DETROIT LIONS Key Stats: STEELERS – 3.6 YPC allowed | 218 YPG passing allowed LIONS – 5.2 YPC allowed | 240 YPG passing, 12 TD passes allowed What to watch for: RB Rashard Mendenhall(notes) put on a show in Week 4, and he could be asked to return to the stage for an encore in Week 5 in the likely event RB Willie Parker(notes) misses another week with his turf toe injury. DET allows the 7th-most FAN PPG to RBs and has allowed a RB to top 90 rushing yards in 3 of 4 contests. Mendenhall is a good bet for another 100-yard game if Parker sits. The Lions also give up a lot of points to RBs through the air, which makes RB Mewelde Moore(notes) a reasonable reach in deeper leagues, but Mendenhall is the featured backfield attraction right now and Moore won’t see a ton of carries – my initial expectations of Moore seeing heavy action in a post-Parker scenario clearly look off target now. Only TEN allows more FAN PPG to QBs than DET and QB Ben Roethlisberger(notes) has accounted for 2 TDs (run or pass) in three straight contests. There is always the possibility that WR Hines Ward(notes) or Santonio Holmes(notes) doesn’t deliver, but you have to go into this contest believing that both will be all good. And lest I forget, DET has conceded a league-high 5 TD receptions to TEs, so TE Heath Miller is an excusable play, as well. In short, start all your Steelers. Because of scoreboard deficits and a running game producing just 3.5 YPC, DET has aired it 150 times, 5th-most in the league. In Week 4, rookie QB Matthew Stafford(notes) paid the price for this aerial emphasis, getting sacked five times before leaving the game with a dislocated knee. If he can’t go on Sunday (a questionable situation at the moment), backup QB Daunte Culpepper(notes) would get the call. Even if PIT S Troy Polamalu(notes) doesn’t return from a knee injury (he’s back practicing this week), you can’t feel too good about starting a DET QB. The Lions have allowed the 7th-most QB sacks and PIT LB James Harrison(notes) is starting to pick up the scent of the QB (3 sacks in the past 2 games). But if your league doesn’t discount for turnovers, there’s probably worse options than Stafford (or Culpepper). PIT has been the hardest team for RBs to score fantasy points against, thus far. You want to avoid starting RB Kevin Smith(notes), who is less than 100 percent healthy (shoulder). In addition to the unbenchable WR Calvin Johnson(notes), who tweaked his quad in Week 4, consider rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew(notes). He was targeted 10 times in Week 4, and looked very confident with the increased attention. PIT has allowed the 4th-most FAN PPG to TEs, so Pettigrew is at least sleeper material. Ben Roethlisberger, Rashard Mendenhall, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Calvin Johnson, Pittsburgh Defense Matthew Stafford Bryant Johnson(notes), Kevin Smith, Detroit Defense Sleeper: Brandon Pettigrew, Mewelde Moore, Mike Wallace(notes) Injuries: DET QB Matthew Stafford (knee) could be questionable; DET WR Calvin Johnson (quad) could be questionable; PIT RB Willie Parker (toe) is expected to be questionable; Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, Detroit 9 WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS Key Stats: REDSKINS – 4.3 YPC allowed | 174 YPG passing allowed PANTHERS – 5.4 YPC allowed | 180 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: WAS QB Jason Campbell(notes) is coming off his 1st 3-INT game of his career in Week 4, something he apologized to his team about in the huddle last Sunday. But fantasy owners will take the big-play Campbell of the last six quarters – he’s completed 2 pass plays of 50+ yards in that span and had 9 of 12 completions in Week 4 go for 10+ yards. CAR has just 4 QB sacks in 3 games, so Campbell should have time to search out TE Chris Cooley(notes) and WR Santana Moss(notes). I’d feel good about starting those two, but I’m less confident in RB Clinton Portis(notes), despite the fact that CAR allows 5.4 YPC. Portis has yet to find pay dirt against lesser competition and is averaging just 3.9 YPC. He’s also dealing with a sore ankle and a rested Panthers defense (Week 4 bye). CAR ranks among the league’s worst offenses in terms of TOP (time of possession) and it is 31st in plays from scrimmage. That doesn’t do RB DeAngelo Williams any favors, but his owners should be reminded that he didn’t score a TD or produce his 1st 100-yard game of ’08 until his 5th game of the season. CAR should be able to establish its running game against a WAS defense that has produced just 5 TOs in four games and also struggles to control the clock. Coming out of the bye, I expect CAR to lean on Williams 20+ times on the ground, with RB Jonathan Stewart(notes) also reaching double-digit carries. QB Jake Delhomme will likely play it very conservative with the passing game, but WR Steve Smith will get his shots, and he has something to prove after he pulled up on a slant route late in the Week 3 game against DAL, which led directly to a back-breaking Delhomme interception. I think the 6/80 line that the Giants’ Steve Smith hung on WAS in Week 1 is a good expectation for the Panthers’ Smith. Expect WR Muhsin Muhammad(notes), one of the best blocking WRs in the game, to be asked to do a lot of path clearing for the backfield duo. CAR likes TE Dante Rosario(notes) and it is starting to feel very comfortable with him in all aspects of the game plan. That said, I’m not optimistic about him finding the end zone for the 3rd consecutive week. Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Smith Jason Campbell, Clinton Portis, Carolina Defense, Washington Defense, Jonathan Stewart, Dante Rosario Antwaan Randle El(notes), Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad Sleeper: Ladell Betts(notes) Injuries: WAS RB Clinton Portis (ankle) could be questionable Prediction: Carolina 26, Washington 13 CINCINNATI BENGALS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS Key Stats: BENGALS – 4.2 YPC allowed | 242 YPG passing allowed | 12 sacks RAVENS – 2.6 YPC allowed | 232 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: CIN can try to establish a ground game with RB Cedric Benson(notes), the NFL leader in carries (84), but it will most likely prove to be a fruitless endeavor. No RB has reached 80 rushing yards against the Ravens in Baltimore in the past 12 games. And only one RB has found pay dirt on the ground in those 12 contests. BAL has allowed the 2nd-most receptions (29) and receiving yards (262) to RBs, however, so backup RB Brian Leonard(notes), who caught six passes in Week 4, qualifies as a deep league PPR Hail Mary – yes, you’d have to be really desperate. IF CIN can keep the BAL blitz heat from overwhelming QB Carson Palmer(notes), the signal-caller should be able to post decent numbers – BAL has been just average in FAN PPG allowed to QBs. But something tells me that BAL is going to be all over Palmer in what will turn into a route. I’d roll with WR Chad Ocho Cinco(notes), but that’s about it. BAL shouldn’t have to veer from its run-heavy course on Sunday. The RB combo of Ray Rice(notes) and Willis McGahee(notes) has been extremely effective – both rank among the top dozen fantasy RBs. But BAL is no longer all run, all the time. The team ranks 3rd in the NFL with 151 pass attempts and plays from scrimmage thanks to a league-high 26.5 1st downs per game. QB Joe Flacco(notes) doesn’t get sacked often (5) and rarely makes mistakes (8 INTs, 1 fumble lost in his past 15 regular season games). It all adds up to the fact that Flacco is now a must-start fantasy commodity, and the matchup with CIN is certainly enticing (all 4 QBs to face the Bengals have thrown for at least 240 yards and a TD, and it has allowed a league-high 17 pass plays of 20+ yards). Go-to WR Derrick Mason(notes) is starting to hit his stride with Flacco and he’s a solid option this week. Also, it should be noted that CIN has allowed a few big games to NO.3 WR types like Brandon Stokley(notes), Mike Wallace and Mohamed Massaquoi, which makes WR Kelley Washington(notes) someone to consider this week if you are in a bind at receiver. TE Todd Heap(notes) has been consistently in the Flacco mix, as well, and he’s at least a “yellow light” consideration against a CIN that has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards to TEs. Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, Derrick Mason, Chad Johnson, Baltimore Defense Carson Palmer, Todd Heap, Mark Clayton(notes) Cedric Benson, Andre Caldwell(notes), Laveranues Coles(notes), Chris Henry, Cincinnati Defense Sleeper: Brian Leonard, Kelley Washington Injuries: CIN WR Andre Caldwell (shoulder) could be questionable; CIN T Andre Smith(notes) (foot) is out; BAL LT Jared Gaither(notes) (neck) is likely to be questionable; BAL LB Brendon Ayanbadejo(notes) (quad) is out for the season Prediction: Baltimore 30, Cincinnati 16 ATLANTA FALCONS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Key Stats: FALCONS – 4.7 YPC allowed | 245 YPG passing 49ERS – 3.1 YPC allowed | 210 YPG passing allowed | 11 sacks What to watch for: This game sets up fairly well for ATL RB Michael Turner(notes) despite the fact that SF allows just 3.1 YPC. Like SF, ATL will pound away with the ground game so long as the score is close. And SF does not have the type of offense that can run up the score, even against an ATL defense that has had plenty of issues stopping both the run and pass, thus far. I can see Turner posting a workman-like 25/80/1 line. Three of four teams to face SF have thrown at least 40 times, and SF is the second-most thrown on team in the league. ATL has done a good job of protecting QB Matt Ryan(notes) (2 sacks) and should be able to work TE Tony Gonzalez(notes) heavily into the mix when it goes away from Turner. WR Roddy White(notes) will likely face off against SF CB Nate Clements(notes), who is one of the top shutdown corners in the league. Your confidence should not run high for White in this one. We could see Michael Jenkins(notes) turn in another solid effort (5/78 in Week 3) opposite White. There’s no mystery to SF. It runs the ball even when it can’t. In 3 of 4 games, a SF back has carried 20+ times despite gaining 3.1 YPC or less. The 49ers average fewer than 27 passes per game, the league’s low mark. So, yes, RB Glen Coffee(notes) can be expected to carry at least 24 times for the 3rd consecutive week. And the 4.7 YPC allowed by ATL, thus far, suggests that Coffee can have success. TE Vernon Davis(notes) leads the team with 27 targets and, with 3 TDs in his past two games, he’s the only part of the passing “attack” worth considering here – Davis is a solid play, in fact, against an ATL defense that is allowing 10 FAN PPG (default scoring) to the TE position. Glen Coffee, Vernon Davis, Michael Turner, Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez Shaun Hill(notes), Roddy White San Francisco Defense, Atlanta Defense, Isaac Bruce(notes), Josh Morgan(notes) Sleeper: Michael Jenkins Injuries: SF LB Marques Harris(notes) (hamstring) could be questionable; SF LB Jeff Ulbrich(notes) (head) is out Prediction: Atlanta 23, San Francisco 20 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS Key Stats: JAGS – 4.0 YPC allowed | 282 YPG passing allowed HAWKS – 5.1 YPC allowed | 220 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: On the road, JAC has leaned heavily on RB Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) this season – 53 touches in two home games vs. 26 touches in two road contests. With SEA allowing 5.1 YPC, MoJo is very likely to lead the way for the JAC offense after carrying just six times in Week 4. QB David Garrard(notes) is coming off a 323-yard, 3 TD pass performance in Week 4, but he has yet to throw a road TD this season. Not having to face SEA DE Patrick Kearney this week certainly helps Garrard’s odds of bucking the fruitless road trend, but the Seahawks are getting healthy again in the secondary and LB Lofa Tatupu(notes) looks almost back to 100 percent, and I don’t think it’ll be a great fantasy day for Garrard when all is said and done. But that doesn’t mean you bench WR Mike Sims-Walker(notes). He’s been a machine the past three weeks, ranking as the No.2 fantasy wideout in that span. Meanwhile, WR Torry Holt(notes) has seen a healthy 23 targets in the past three weeks, but he and Garrard clearly don’t have the same type of chemistry that Sims-Walker and Garrard have been enjoying. Holt has caught just 12 of the 23 passes sent his way in the past three games. TE Marcedes Lewis(notes) has topped 60 yards and scored a TD in 2 of his past 3 games, but I expect JAC to play it fairly conservative and keep Lewis in to block regularly in this one. SEA could get QB Matt Hasselbeck(notes) back this week. He’ll try to practice and, if all goes well, he’ll be back in action on Sunday. It’s a tough time to bring Hasselbeck back, if he can go, as SEA is continuing to suffer health setbacks along the offensive line. It’s a patchwork unit up front right now, but at least it’ll face a JAC defensive line that has mustered a league-low 3 QB sacks. Be it Hasselbeck or QB Seneca Wallace(notes), the SEA QB should be afforded time to pick on a defense that is allowing 282 passing YPG. WRs T.J. Houshmandzadeh(notes) and Nate Burleson(notes) would both benefit from Hasselbeck’s return, but they aren’t terrible options even if Wallace remains the man at the helm for SEA on Sunday. RB Julius Jones(notes) has done his best work in SEA at home, and he should be in line for a return to something close to 20 touches, so long as SEA can keep things close or maintain control of the game. JAC has held Dallas Clark(notes) and Owen Daniels(notes), along with all the other TEs it has faced, to less than 40 receiving yards, and SEA TE John Carlson(notes) has withered with Hasselbeck on the sidelines. Even if Hasselbeck returns, SEA has serious injury issues on the edges of its offensive line, and Carlson will likely play a heavier role as a blocker than usual. Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike Sims-Walker, Nate Burleson, T.J. Houshmandzadeh David Garrard, Marcedes Lewis, Matt Hasselbeck, Julius Jones, John Carlson, Seattle Defense Jacksonville Defense, Torry Holt Sleeper: Seneca Wallace Injuries: SEA QB Matt Hasselbeck (ribs) is likely to be questionable; SEA LT Walter Jones(notes) (knee) may be out; SEA RT Sean Locklear(notes) (ankle) is out; SEA G Rob Sims(notes) (ankle) is out; SEA DE Patrick Kearney (groin) is expected to be doubtful Prediction: Seattle 26, Jacksonville 21 HOUSTON TEXANS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS Key Stats: TEXANS – 5.5 YPC allowed | 204 YPG passing allowed CARDS – 3.1 YPC allowed | 280 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: ARI allows the 3rd-most passing yards per game in the league, and HOU is 9th in passing offense (249 YPG). HOU QB Matt Schaub(notes) shouldn’t be afraid to look to WR Andre Johnson, who was held in check by CB Nnamdi Asomugha in Week 4, early and often. Mike Sims-Walker and Reggie Wayne(notes) have victimized the Cards with back-to-back 100-yard, 1 TD performances. RB Steve Slaton(notes) scored 2 TDs in Week 4, but he also lost his second fumble of the season, which is a major point of contention for head coach Gary Kubiak. Kubiak sent Slaton a message by running backup RB Ryan Moats(notes) 15 times in last week’s contest, but Moats is now dealing with turf toe, so Slaton should have yet another opportunity to gain Kubiak’s favor. I like Slaton’s chances of finding pay dirt and reaching the 100 total-yard mark. TE Owen Daniels is the No. 7 fantasy TE and he’s facing an ARI defense that has allowed the 9th-most FAN PPG to TEs. He’s a no-brainer start. WRs Anquan Boldin(notes) and Steve Breaston(notes) should be at or near 100 percent health after a Week 4 bye, and that means the ARI offense should be at full strength against a HOU defense that would probably rank last in YPG allowed if not for the grace of a matchup with OAK in Week 4. HOU has just 4 sacks, so QB Kurt Warner(notes) should be able to sit in the pocket and dissect the Texans’ secondary. But HOU struggles mightily against the run and this is a good chance for ARI to test a more traditional balanced attack as opposed to the spread-heavy schemes that has been its calling card since last year. Don’t be surprised if rookie RB Beanie Wells(notes) sees a heavier workload than RB Tim Hightower(notes) for the first time. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, Steve Slaton, Owen Daniels, Kurt Warner, Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald(notes) Kevin Walter(notes), Arizona Defense, Tim Hightower, Steve Breaston Houston Defense, Anthony Becht(notes) Sleeper: Beanie Wells, Jacoby Jones(notes) Injuries: None of major significance Prediction: Arizona 35, Houston 31 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ DENVER BRONCOS Key Stats: PATS – 4.5 YPC allowed | 192 YPG passing allowed BRONCOS – 3.2 YPC allowed | 163 YPG passing | 15 sacks | 6 INTs What to watch for: DEN has been among the league’s best at shutting down the run and NE has been among the league’s worst at running the football. From a fantasy perspective there’s very little to hang a hat on in the NE backfield. RB Fred Taylor(notes) did top 20 carries and 100 rushing yards a couple weeks ago, but he was promptly marginalized with just seven carries (25 yards) in Week 4. Continue to avoid this backfield, especially this week. DEN hasn’t allowed a TD pass this season, but you’d have to have a real strong backup option to consider benching QB Tom Brady(notes). WR Randy Moss(notes) scored 2 TDs against DEN last season, but both TDs came after CB Champ Bailey(notes) went down with a groin injury. That said, the fear of a Bailey matchup shouldn’t prevent you from playing Moss. Go-to WRs Chad Ocho Cinco and Braylon Edwards combined to average more than 90 yards against DEN this season. Last week, NE was able to jump out to a 17-7 halftime lead on BAL, which forced the Ravens to the air despite the fact that the team gained 6.8 yards per pop on the ground. Averaging a healthy 4.7 YPC, look for DEN to try and work over NE on the ground and avoid a situation like BAL had where the pass becomes a necessity. With RB Correll Buckhalter(notes) nursing a sore ankle, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno should push 20+ carries. NE has been strong against the pass and DEN, clearly, does not have total faith yet in QB Kyle Orton’s ability to carry this offense through the air – DEN is attempting just 29.2 passes per game, sixth-lowest in the NFL. WR Brandon Marshall has come alive the past couple weeks, but I’d be leery of the DEN passing game in general in this one. Knowshon Moreno, Tom Brady, Randy Moss Wes Welker(notes), Brandon Marshall, Denver Defense Kyle Orton, Eddie Royal(notes), Brandon Stokley, Tony Scheffler(notes), Daniel Graham(notes), Benjamin Watson(notes), New England Defense, Fred Taylor, Sammy Morris(notes), Kevin Faulk(notes), Laurence Maroney(notes) Sleeper: LaMont Jordan(notes) Injuries: DEN RB Correll Buckhalter (ankle) could be out; LB Jerod Mayo(notes) (knee) could be out Prediction: Denver 20, New England 17 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ TENNESSEE TITANS Key Stats: COLTS – 4.0 YPC allowed | 202 YPG passing allowed | 12 sacks TITANS – 2.8 YPC allowed | 282 YPG passing allowed What to watch for: Three of four QBs to face TEN have surpassed the 300-yard passing mark, and now TEN gets to face a QB, Peyton Manning(notes), who has opened the season with four consecutive 300-yard performances. Go-to WRs have had a field day with the Titans, and six WRs in total have scored at least 10 FAN PTS against TEN this season. But WRs aren’t the only ones to join in on the fun, as TEN has also allowed the 3rd-most FAN PTS to TEs. Teams have tried to run on TEN, but it’s been to no avail (2.8 YPC allowed). In fact, in Week 4, JAC backup RB Rashad Jennings(notes) had the highest rushing yardage total against TEN this season with a mere 53 yards. TEN has shut down RBs of all types, so don’t think that the style of RB Joseph Addai(notes) or rookie RB Donald Brown(notes) could somehow offer something that TEN hasn’t seen. Just steer clear from the IND backfield completely. IND has stuffed the ground games of NFC West opponents Arizona and Seattle in the past two weeks, but the Colts were pounded early in the year by the rushing attacks of JAC and MIA. The key, of course, for JAC and MIA was being able to keep the score close. We saw last week how ugly things can turn when TEN has to play from behind and rely solely on QB Kerry Collins’(notes) arm. TEN has to get back to running the ball – its ranked 23rd in rush attempts per game (24.8), seven fewer attempts, on average, than last season. Not only does RB Chris Johnson need to see a heavy workload, but former platoon partner LenDale White(notes) has to get back in the mix. When TEN was most dominant last season, White was getting a lot of work in conjunction with Johnson. Look for TEN to get that blue collar swagger back with the ground game. IND has allowed just 8 TD passes in the past 20 regular-season games, by far the lowest mark in the league during that span. QB Kerry Collins threw 13 consecutive incompletions last week. Sure, WRs Kenny Britt(notes) and Nate Washington(notes) are interesting, but you don’t want any piece of the TEN passing game this week. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon(notes), Dallas Clark, Chris Johnson LenDale White Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, Kerry Collins, Justin Gage(notes), Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Bo Scaife(notes), Tennessee Defense, Indianapolis Defense Sleeper: Austin Collie(notes) Injuries: TEn WR Nate Washington (head) could be questionable; IND T Charlie Johnson(notes) (knee) could be questionable; Prediction: Indianapolis 21, Tennessee 19 NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS Key Stats: JETS – 4.2 YPC allowed | 178 YPG passing allowed FINS – 2.9 YPC allowed | 239 YPG passing allowed | 11 sacks What to watch for: NYJ rookie QB Mark Sanchez(notes) is coming off his worst performance as a pro, by far. He threw three picks and lost a fumble at New Orleans in the team’s first loss of the season. But as bad as that performance was, Sanchez’s arm could prove crucial this week against a MIA defense allowing just 2.9 YPC. NYJ may try to more heavily mix rookie RB Shonn Greene(notes) into the backfield rotation to add a fresh face to the Thomas Jones(notes)/Leon Washington show. But, assuming MIA maintains its rigidity in run defense, Sanchez is likely going to have to throw it 30-35 times. And if that turns out to be the case, I like the way it sets up for Washington (as a receiver out of the backfield) and TE Dustin Keller(notes) (only MIN has allowed more yards to TEs than MIA). MIA can get after the QB and, after last week, I don’t expect NYJ to ask Sanchez to sit in the pocket too often on MNF. That’s why I’m a little tepid in regards to go-to WR Jerricho Cotchery(notes) and WR Chansi Stuckey(notes). I’d play just the extreme safety options this week. We saw last week that MIA is going to play it extremely conservative with QB Chad Henne(notes). MIA ran 45 times against BUF in Week 4, but it could have a rough time trying to duplicate its ground success this week against the Rex Ryan-led Jets – Ryan was able to stymie the MIA running game twice last season with BAL. But the Wildcat has been working like a charm for RB Ronnie Brown, and his confidence in this offense is running high. I expect the team to add some wrinkles and still be able to have some success on the ground. NYJ allows the 5th-fewest passing yards per game, a discouraging number for anyone hoping to get something out of the MIA passing game. Ronnie Brown, Dustin Keller, New York Defense, Miami Defense Ricky Williams(notes), Jerricho Cotchery, Leon Washington(notes) Thomas Jones, Chansi Stuckey, Chad Henne, Ted Ginn Jr.(notes), Davone Bess(notes), Anthony Fasano(notes), Greg Camarillo(notes) Sleeper: Mark Sanchez Injuries: None of major significance Prediction: New York 17, Miami 13 fantasyyahoo.com
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Sunday, October 4, 2009

Week 4 Fantasy League News Sit or start ? Sleepers ?

Clinton Portis(notes) (ankles, calf) missed Friday's work and looks very questionable for Sunday's friendly match against the Buccaneers (Tampa went tackling-optional against the Giants last week). Ladell Betts(notes) hasn't gotten a lot of rushing attempts so far this year but he showed some juice as a receiver last week; make sure he's not floating on your waiver wire, just in case. Jim Zorn is a man of percentages and he's calling Portis "50-50" at the moment. [Washington Post] • Marion Barber(notes) (quad) had a full workout again on Friday and is listed as probable. Look for him to get a start at Denver, albeit there are some fantasy flags here; the Broncos are mightily improved on defense and Tashard Choice(notes) is too good to ignore (figure that he'll get at least 10 touches). Nonetheless, I'm calling Barber a solid RB2 this week, what sayeth you? [Dallas Morning News] • Kevin Smith(notes) (shoulder) did most of the work Friday and he says he expects to play against the Bears. That said, head coach Jim Schwartz isn't going to make an official call until he absolutely has to - Smith will be a game-time decision - and just because Smith starts at Chicago doesn't mean he'll be well enough to finish. On the other side of the ball, Matt Forte(notes) (knee) had a good day of work Friday and looks fine for Week 4; he's listed as probable. [Mlive.com] • Willie Parker(notes) (toe) missed his third day of work and is doubtful for the prime-time game with the Chargers. It's a huge opportunity for Rashard Mendenhall(notes) (Brad Evans is here to tell you all about it), and don't forget about Mewelde Moore(notes), the sultan of the spread and an underrated pass blocker. [Pittsburgh Post-Gazette] • Jamal Lewis(notes) (hamstring) is considered doubtful after missing the full week of practice; don't look for him to go against the Bengals. James Davis is also dinged up (shoulder, questionable) which leaves Jerome Harrison(notes) as the last primary back standing. Give Harrison 15 touches against a defense not called the Baltimore Ravens and something reasonable might go up on the board. [Cleveland Plain Dealer] • Randy Moss(notes) must be a heck of a quick healer because he was removed from the injury report Friday. Go ahead and play him against a Baltimore secondary that isn't as good as the name brand suggests. As for Wes Welker(notes) (knee), all we can do is play the waiting game; he did some work Friday but remains questionable. At least it's an early game; not even the Patriots can keep the truth from us come noontime Sunday. [Boston Herald] • LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) (ankle) had another good day and is considered probable for the Sunday night affair at Pittsburgh. How you feel about LT here depends on your depth and other options; even if Tomlinson is on the field, I still like Darren Sproles(notes) as a flex play against a Pittsburgh group that's not as imposing with Troy Polamalu(notes) out. On the other side for the Chargers, LB Shawne Merriman(notes) (groin) is listed as questionable. [San Diego Union-Tribune] • It's not fun looking at the train wreck known as the Kansas City Chiefs every week but we can't help it, Dwayne Bowe(notes) is that important to our numbers racket. Bowe (hamstring) is questionable on the injury report and it will come down to another game-day call for him. If Bowe can't go, see if you can slide Mark Bradley(notes) or Bobby Wade(notes) onto your WR3 or WR4 spot in a deeper group. [KC Star on Twitter] • Kyle Boller(notes) took all the first-team reps for the Rams this week so we'll be spared another look at Marc Bulger(notes) (shoulder, nerves). Boller probably won't do anything special against that underrated 49ers defense but at least he gives the St. Louis offense a fighting chance; Bulger is just a deer in the headlights in the pocket right now, his confidence is totally shot. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch] Other nicks of note: Brett Favre(notes) (foot) had a limited day Friday but do you really think he's going to miss the Packers on Monday? Get real. … Cedric Benson(notes) (ankle) had a good session Friday and is listed as probable. Obviously get him in there against Cleveland's leaky defense. … Lance Moore(notes) (hamstring) has made a quick recovery and is a surprising "probable" on the injury report but there's no guarantee he'll be thrown into a heavy rotation of snaps right away. We'll scout Moore closely this week, but I can't imagine why any fantasy owner would want to risk a start on him right now. … The Pats defense has serious issues with Jerod Mayo(notes) (knee) doubtful and Vince Wilfork(notes) (ankle) questionable. There's no reason to rest your key Ravens at Foxboro. Derrick Mason(notes) was held back Friday because of an illness but he should be okay on game day (check back before kickoff just to be sure). … Just what the struggling Titans don't need, a banged-up Cortland Finnegan(notes) (hamstring). He's listed as questionable. … Hakeem Nicks(notes) (foot) is probable and should be ready for a back-up role at Kansas City. Related: Fantasy Football
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Sunday, September 27, 2009

Top 50 players for week 3 ! Sit or bench ?

Jac, RB Pace for 344 touches; 3 of next 4 look tasty (HOU, SEA, STL) 1 2 Adrian Peterson, Min, RB Carrying MIN offense, and has a sore back to prove it 2 3 Chris Johnson, Ten, RB Y! writer Silver pegged CJ No. 2 in fantasy—so far, oh, so good 11 4 Drew Brees(notes), NO, QB Looks like a man on a mission to break Brady TD pass record 21 5 Frank Gore(notes), SF, RB SF all in for the run, and plenty of softies left on sched 8 6 DeAngelo Williams(notes), Car, RB Heartening that he’s been very solid during CAR’s slow start 5 7 Michael Turner(notes), Atl, RB Not surprisingly, tied for NFL lead in carries thru 2 weeks 3 8 Tom Brady(notes), NE, QB It’s very clear that NE will ride Brady’s arm the whole way 23 9 Matt Forte(notes), Chi, RB SEA, DET in Weeks 3-4 should be cure for what ails him 4 10 Andre Johnson(notes), Hou, WR Now has 1,580 receiving yards and 10 TDs in past 15 games 13 11 Larry Fitzgerald(notes), Ari, WR Has yet to go off, but has 9-game TD streak (postseason too) 12 12 Steven Jackson, StL, RB Having to overcome lack of talent around him is nothing new 7 13 Randy Moss(notes), NE,WR 16 looks in W1 could be common, save W11 (return of Revis) 14 14 Ronnie Brown(notes), Mia, RB MIA needs to embrace that Brown is heart-n-soul of the offense 17 15 Marion Barber(notes), Dal, RB Sore quad threatens to slow sizzling start (203/2 in 1st 2 games) 22 16 Steve Smith, Car, WR Most targeted WR will live/die by Delhomme’s schizophrenia 18 17 Calvin Johnson(notes), Det, WR Seeing plenty of targets, but chemistry w/ QB work in progress 15 18 Peyton Manning(notes), Ind, QB 300+ passing yds in 5 of past 6 games (’08 WC game included) 31 19 Philip Rivers(notes), SD, QB Lots of skilled receivers, LT health shaky—it’s now Rivers’ team 41 20 Reggie Wayne(notes), Ind, WR A consistency king like his QB; count on 1,300+ yards, 8+ TDs 30 21 Marques Colston(notes), NO, WR Looks like an especially good year to be Brees’ top wingman 29 22 Brandon Jacobs(notes), NYG RB NYG still trying to find that smash-mouth success of ’08 16 23 Brian Westbrook(notes), Phi, RB With problematic ankle, “Questionable” tag will be common 9 24 Steve Slaton(notes), Hou, RB Offseason weight gain seems to be hindering more than helping 10 25 LaDainian Tomlinson(notes), SD, RB As good as LT is as receiver, that duty may be all Sproles’ now 6 26 Anquan Boldin(notes), Ari, WR Showed hamstring much improved with 8 catches in W2 19 27 Kevin Smith(notes), Det, RB W/ rookie QB, 25+ touches likely a frequent occurence 24 28 Greg Jennings(notes), GB, WR 9 rec. of 40+ yards in past 18 games, but 0 rec. in W2 was a 1st 26 29 Roddy White(notes), Atl, WR Coming up short: 2nd-lowest YPC (8.6) among WRs w/ 10+ rec. 27 30 Cedric Benson(notes), Cin, RB Frankly, he looks real good, and sched is cakewalk Week 11-16 - 31 Wes Welker(notes), NE, WR 16 looks in W1, and his injury-replacement had 16 looks in W2 36 32 Dallas Clark(notes), Ind, TE Sans A-Gon, leads NFL in receiving yds (222) after 2 games - 33 Ryan Grant(notes), GB, RB Grinder qualities helped him make the most of GB’s poor start 25 34 Fred Jackson(notes), Buf, RB Thru W2, 2nd in YFS; Lynch can hope for platoon, at most - 35 Aaron Rodgers(notes), GB, QB Don’t jump ship on popular MVP sleeper pick just yet 33 36 Antonio Gates(notes), SD, TE 80 ypg in 1st 2, but 0 TDs—too vital in RZ for that to last long 38 37 Tony Gonzalez(notes), Atl, TE Has hit ATL running—Man enough to admit I sold him short - 38 Vincent Jackson(notes), SD, WR Tower of Terror is No. 2 fantasy WR through 2 weeks - 39 Santonio Holmes(notes), Pit, WR Has been much better than I expected (weak run game helps) - 40 Thomas Jones(notes), NYJ, RB Providing the inside muscle for what is a very run-heavy squad 44 41 Dwayne Bowe(notes), KC, WR KC solo act draws a crowd, but has TD in each of 1st 2 games 32 42 DeSean Jackson(notes), Phi, WR Like w/ Westbrook, PHI seeks creative ways to get him the ball 37 43 Tony Romo(notes), Dal, QB Not always pretty, but always finds his way into QB top 5 PPG 42 44 Chad Ocho Cinco(notes), Cin, WR Palmer’s return also lands 85 back in spotlight (90 ypg in 1st 2) - 45 Steve Smith, NYG, WR 3rd-year breakout: 5th in FAN PTS, 6th in looks @ WR thru W2 - 46 Willis McGahee(notes), Bal, RB 10-15 carries a week, including goal-line work, lucrative in BAL - 47 Jason Witten(notes), Dal, TE Even when Romo’s erratic, he usually manages to produce 39 48 Clinton Portis(notes), Was, RB Age and wear-n-tear is getting more and more obvious 20 49 Darren Sproles(notes), SD, RB He looks assured of regular 12+ touches w/ or w/o LT - 50 Pierre Thomas(notes), NO, RB Return from MCL injury has been painfully slow for PT owners 28 DROPPED OUT: NEXT 10: Tim Hightower(notes), Ari, RB; Knowshon Moreno(notes), Den, RB; Leon Washington(notes), NYJ, RB; Ray Rice(notes), BAl, RB; Felix Jones(notes), Dal, RB; Darren McFadden(notes), Oak, RB; Hines Ward(notes), Pit, WR; Kellen Winslow(notes), TB, TE; Matt Ryan(notes), Atl, QB; Matt Schaub(notes), Hou, QB ON THE BUBBLE: (QBs) Joe Flacco(notes), Bal; Kurt Warner(notes), Ari; Ben Roethlisberger(notes), Pit; Carson Palmer(notes), Cin; Jay Cutler(notes), Chi; Donovan McNabb(notes), Phi; (RBs) Reggie Bush(notes), NO; Carnell Williams(notes), TB; Jonathan Stewart(notes), Car; Ahmad Bradshaw(notes), NYG; LeSean McCoy(notes), Phi; Joseph Addai(notes), Ind; Donald Brown(notes), Ind; Larry Johnson(notes), KC; Marshawn Lynch(notes), Buf; Derrick Ward(notes), TB; Jamal Lewis(notes), Cle; Julius Jones(notes), Sea; (WRs) Braylon Edwards(notes), Cle; Terrell Owens(notes), Buf; Jerricho Cotchery(notes), NYJ; Mario Manningham(notes), NYG; Laurent Robinson(notes), StL; T.J. Houshmandzadeh(notes), Sea; Percy Harvin(notes), Min; Roy Williams, Dal; Donald Driver(notes), GB; Brandon Marshall(notes), Den; Eddie Royal(notes), Den; Nate Burleson(notes), Sea; (TEs) John Carlson(notes), Sea; Chris Cooley(notes), Was; Jeremy Shockey(notes), NO; Owen Daniels(notes), Hou; Dustin Keller(notes), NYJ; Brent Celek(notes), Phi

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Monday, September 7, 2009

Looking for deep sleepers ? Here is your sleeper draft picks !

Everyone and their dog knows Chris Brown might steal goal-line looks from Steve Slaton, that Joe Flacco has a better arm than he showed in 2008, and that Michael Crabtree's absence is Josh Morgan's gain. I mean, how much good does it really do you to luck out and draft the No. 27 wide receiver in fantasy, when everyone else in your league believed the guy would be the No. 47 receiver? No, the true unexpected studs of fantasy football circa 2009 -- the real shockers of the Slaton, Matt Cassel, Tyler Thigpen or Tim Hightower variety -- probably won't be drafted in many leagues this summer. That's because whoever they are, they're buried on an NFL depth chart, silently vibrating with potential energy, waiting for injury and/or opportunity. So today's exercise isn't about trying to find you the sneaky name everyone else already knows but is maybe undervaluing a scintilla or two. Instead, to mix sports metaphors, I'll try to hit the ball out of the ballpark blindfolded. I'm listing 10 names you might know only vaguely or not at all, players who I think have a chance of being relatively important fantasy players at some point in '09. Now, that's not to say I'd draft any of 'em; in a 10-team league, I highly doubt that I would draft a single one of these souls. But as the season progresses, I believe at least a few of these guys will be worth adding, and you'll remember this article, remember who they are, and add them with confidence and aplomb. As a preface, this is a bear of an exercise. To give you some context, here are the 10 names I selected for this article last year: Anthony Alridge, David Clowney, Will Franklin, Roy Hall, Hightower, Jason Hill, Jalen Parmele, Antonio Pittman, Marcus Thomas and Mike Walker. Hightower was obviously the superstar of this group, and seeing potential in Walker and Clowney wasn't bad. Hill caught 30 passes and a couple scores. Pittman got a crack at playing time and blew it. Otherwise, though, nothing. And that's to be expected. To be clear, I'm not listing an '09 first-round draft pick like Kenny Britt (whom I like as a more traditional sleeper following Nate Washington's hamstring injury) or, ya know, Shonn Greene. We're going way deeper than that. So let's look at another 10 long shots, shall we? Andre Caldwell, WR, Bengals. The Cincinnati staff really likes Caldwell and has done its best to get him on the field during the exhibition season. It hasn't showed in the second-year man's stat line (one catch for three yards), but he has been out there a lot. Of course, he's No. 4 on the Bengals' receiving totem pole, behind Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles and Chris Henry, but Caldwell is also supposedly the team's Wildcat quarterback. If someone on this depth chart gets hurt, Caldwell, who is more talented than older brother Reche, has it in him to be an intriguing contributor. Austin Collie, WR, Colts. Remember when Anthony Gonzalez was Peyton Manning's slot receiver? With Marvin Harrison gone, that's not the case any longer; Gonzo will play out in Harrison's old flanker role, while Reggie Wayne will stay at split end. There's a vacancy in the slot, then, and Collie, a rookie out of BYU, might be the man. He led Division I with 1,538 receiving yards in 2008, and the Colts took him in the fourth round in April. He has excellent hands and nice quickness, and he measures a full 6-foot-2. If he gains Manning's trust early, the sky is the limit. James Davis, RB, Browns. Raise your hand if you trust Jamal Lewis. He just turned 30, is coming off a 1,002-yard, four-touchdown season, and doesn't exactly play on an offensive juggernaut any longer. Enter Davis, a rookie out of Clemson who, if he had turned pro after his junior year, might have been a second-round pick. Instead, he stuck around Death Valley and went in the sixth round. In his first two exhibition games (admittedly, not running against first-team defenses), Davis has 121 yards on 14 carries and seems to be proving that while his 40 time didn't blow anyone away (it was 4.6 at the scouting combine in the spring, and 4.45 at Clemson's pro day), he's "game fast." And Davis isn't a water bug like Jerome Harrison; he's three inches taller and 20 pounds heavier. There's a chance Davis gets in the mix for carries as early as Week 1. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers. The only tight end on this list has great athletic ability, but at the moment, he's really more a reason not to draft Donald Lee than someone you need to worry about owning in September. Be aware, though, that the Green Bay brass loves this kid, a second-year player out of Texas, and thinks he can be an Antonio Gates type of factor in a year or two. He's 6-foot-5, 250 pounds, runs a 4.8 40 and will get a lot of playing time. Arian Foster, RB, Texans. Foster was supposed to be a superstar at Tennessee; instead, he wound up going undrafted this April. Houston signed him as a free agent and loved what it saw of him in spring practice, so much so that Foster was mentioned as a possible short-yardage accompanist for Steve Slaton. It's been downhill for Foster since those heady days: He pulled a hamstring early in training camp and hasn't really gotten back on the field since, though he's supposed to play in the Texans' third preseason game this weekend. Clearly Slaton is the man in Houston, and Chris Brown seems to have a bead on being the touchdown vulture. But Foster is a big kid (6-foot-1, 226 pounds), has 4.7-ish speed, and could benefit if and when Brown gets hurt. Of course, Foster could also wind up on the practice squad. Michael DeHoog If Jonathan Stewart's Achilles continues to bother him, Mike Goodson (above) could be in an advantageous role. Mike Goodson, RB, Panthers. Jonathan Stewart's loss has been Goodson's gain. A rookie out of Texas A&M, Goodson actually timed out slower than expected this spring (4.54 at the combine, 4.43 at his pro day) for a guy his size (listed generously at 196 pounds) and wound up going a round or two later than originally projected last winter. But he has played really well in the exhibition season, showing ankle-breaking quickness, game-fast speed and a little bit of power. I'm not sure he's a feature back waiting to happen, but with Carolina, he doesn't need to be. If Stewart's Achilles is going to bug him into the season, it appears Goodson will be No. 2 on the depth chart behind DeAngelo Williams and will play. Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars. Hedge alert: For a while this summer, it really sounded as though Jennings, a rookie out of Liberty, had the inside track to becoming Maurice Jones-Drew's backup. Since then, though, Jennings has limped around a bit with a groin injury, while Greg Jones and Chauncey Washington have made inroads on the backup's job. I love MJD this year, but I also acknowledge the amount of risk that a featured back his size comes with, so whoever wins this backup gig might very well be worth a handcuff. It's a three-horse race right now, and I'm interested in the victor. Marko Mitchell, WR, Redskins. Mitchell is the deepest of deep flyers, maybe even too deep for this list, because it would be mighty rare to have a seventh-round receiver contribute anything in his rookie year. But Mitchell was the star of Washington's training camp: At 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, he runs a 4.49 40, is an amazing leaper and showed better-than-expected ball skills right away. He has Redskins beat reporters saying they think he has a chance to start opposite Santana Moss. That sounds pretty far-fetched to me; the team has a lot more invested in second-year men Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. But this organization has been lacking a No. 2 receiver for going on five years. If Mitchell winds up being that guy, he could be intriguing. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals. Like a lot of rookies, Scott went through a honeymoon period early in training camp in which everyone hyped him, and it sounded as though he were the no-brainer choice to be Cedric Benson's backup. Then everyone watched him play a couple of exhibition games and he didn't blow anyone away, so the fantasy hype machine moved on. But Scott remains a more intriguing physical specimen than Brian Leonard, the other guy who could win the No. 2 role in Cincy. Scott's physical gifts have never been his problem; the issue is that he was arrested five times in college. Still, he's fast, he's a great athlete, and he has enough size and shiftiness to become an every-down back someday -- if he can get the mental and emotional side of things down. Danny Ware, RB, Giants. A former practice-squad player with two career carries in two seasons, Ware has been really good so far during the exhibition season, with 128 total yards from scrimmage. Of course, Ahmad Bradshaw has played spectacularly and has a stranglehold on the No. 2 job behind Brandon Jacobs. But with rookie Andre Brown's season-ending injury, Ware is definitively the No. 3 guy, and that was a role that suited Bradshaw fairly well last season. Plus, Ware would just be a Jacobs injury (not exactly the rarest of birds) away from significant carries behind one of the league's best offensive lines.
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Sunday, September 6, 2009

Top 50 running backs to draft for your fantasy football team

1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: The most explosive player in the NFL is the consensus #1 pick for most fantasy drafts. He has a solid offensive line that is led by guard Steve Hutchinson, but he also lost center Matt Birk in the off season. If a QB can step up, he will boost the value of Peterson even more with the threat of the pass. Drafting him #1 is a no-brainer, because of his all-world skill set and his chances of reaching 2,000 yards rushing is not completely out of reach. His downside is his durability issues, fumbling problems, and the fact that Chester Taylor comes in on 3rd downs. (handcuff: Chester Taylor) (Bye: Week 8) 2. Michael Turner, Falcons: The "Burner" showed what he could do when he finally left the shadow of L.T. We can make the argument that Turner should be the first back off the board for the following reasons: He had zero single digit fantasy games, he had more rushes inside opponents 10 yard line than any other back (36), and he is in an offense that boasts Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez which will limit the 8 man fronts. On the downside, he rarely catches any passes, the team would like to get Jerious Norwood more involved, and Turned hit the 370+ carry mark in 08', which usually spells disaster for any RB the following season. (Handcuff: Jerious Norwood) (Bye: Week 4) 3. Matt Forte, Bears: If you would have told us this rookie would have led the league in touches and become a PPR leaguestar, we would have told you you were nuttier than Will Smith turning down the role of NEO in the Matrix. Will Forte be THE ONE, or is a sophomore slump on the horizon? Jay Cutler arrives which will open up the down field passing game, but will he dump passes off to Forte at the rate Kyle Orton did? At any rate, Forte showed that he has big time ability to run, catch, and block (1, 715 yards, 12 TDs, and 63 catches)...all of which will be on display in 2009. (Handcuff: Kevin Jones) (Bye: Week 5) 4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: We have been waiting years for Fred Taylor to go away and Mo-Jo to be the feature back. Fred plays for the Patriots now, and Jones-Drew is left to handle the duties himself. He has all the attributes of an every down back and despite his size (5'7 208) is an exceptional goaline runner as shown by his 34 TDs in three years. With no passing game to speak of, expect the Jags offense to go through Jones and career highs in all categories to follow. (Handcuff : Chauncy Washington or Rashad Jennings) (Bye : Week 7) 5. Chris Johnson, Titans: He exploded on to our fantasy radars during the pre-season last year and became one of our biggest sleepers heading into the draft. His 4.2 40 speed , exceptional hands, and elusiveness in the open field make him a match up nightmare. He had 43 receptions, 1,488 total yards, and 10 TDs . This was despite the fact that fat ass Lendale White was stealing carries and touchdowns. The Titans know their offense is much more explosive and less predictable with the ball in Johnson's hands, so it wouldn't be hard to expect an increase in all categories across the board. (Handcuff: Lendale White) (Bye: Week 7) 6. Steven Jackson, Rams: When it comes to fantasy football, most rewards don't come without risk...in the past two seasons Action Jackson has missed a total 8 starts due to wide variety of injuries...The Risk. When he did play the entire year, in 2006, he had 2,334 total yards, 90 catches, and 16 TDs...The Reward. The Rams want to make him the centerpiece of their offense, but will they be able to stay in games long enough to sustain a consistent offense? Will first round pick OT Jason Smith be able to replace long time pro-bowler Orlando Pace? Will you take the risk and pull the trigger in the early first round? (Bye: Week 9) 7 Steve Slaton, Texans: Did you know that Slaton was second in the league in red zone carries with 63? (Read: In the Red) He only turned those into 6 TDs and there were whispers that the Texans would sign a big goaline back in the off season. His ability to make the cutback run in Alex Gibbs one-cut system, his soft hands, and open field vision make him a clear #1 back. With the weapons this team has on offense, we believe Slaton will have the potential to reach 1,900 total yards, 50 plus receptions, and 10 TDs. (Bye: Week 10) 8 DeAngelo Williams, Panthers: Many believed he would cede the starting job to Jonathan Stewart after he was selected in the first round 2008, but in the second half of the season he exploded for 993 yards and 15 TDs. He became fantasy's biggest surprise and brought a title to many of his owners. So, why no love? First of all, his chances of duplicating 20 TDs are slim, as the only other RBs who have duplicated the feat the following season are these guys: Emmitt Smith, Priest Holmes, L.T., Shaun ALexander, and Marshall Faulk. Pretty good company, but unfortunately DeAngelo isn't as talented as anyone in that group. Second, splitting carries with Stewart (who is bigger, and a better goaline runner) is on the agenda. (Handcuff: Jonathan Stewart) (Bye : Week 4) 9. LaDanian Tomlinson, Chargers: He's washed up. He's injury prone. He's turning 30. He still had 344 touches, 1,536 yards, and 12 scores during his "disappointing" 2008 campaign. He still will be the focal point of one of the most dynamic offenses in the league as he will catch plenty of passes and still get the goaline looks to compensate for his YPC going in the wrong direction. Not worthy of a top 3 pick any longer with Darren Sproles now around to steal touches, but do not let him slip too far....you may regret it. (Handcuff: Darren Sproles) (Bye: Week 5) 10. Brian Westbrook, Eagles: Once a dynamic punt returner and 3rd down back, "Westy" has become one the most versatile backs in the NFL. His one problem has always been his ability to stay healthy, and although he only missed 4 starts in the past 3 seasons, his in-game injuries always cause you to cringe every time he is helped off the field. One of our favorite fantasy players ever, the cards are stacked against him having another dominant campaign. Another surgery, another missed training camp and pre-season, his age, and a hot-shot young RB (McCoy) that is a clone of a younger Westbrook all spell disaster for 2009, otherwise known as a bust. You may think "Westbrook, Bust?!?! Only a bust in the sense that he won't put up 1st round numbers. He is still a stud, just don't expect the same production. (Handcuff: LeSean McCoy) (Bye : Week 4) 11. Frank Gore, 49ers: Pass-happy Mike Martz is gone. Mike Singletary wants to run the ball effectively under new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye and play tough defense. An every-down back, Gore has shown that he has game-breaking ability and he will be relied on heavily by a team who will start Shaun Hill at QB. The 49ers also brought back FB Moran Norris who blocked for Gore in his breakout year of 2006, but they also spent a 3rd round pick on RB Glen Coffee. With Gore's skill set, expect a ton a touches once again and his numbers could mimic his breakout season of '06. (Handcuff: Glen Coffee) (Bye: Week 6) 12. Brandon Jacobs, Giants: The Lockness Monster. Bigfoot. Brandon Jacobs. He is what lore is made of, standing 7'10 and weighing in at 352 lbs, he runs over LBs and DBs with the greatest of ease. He will miss a game or three due to his punishing running style, and the training camp battle for the backup role should be a heated one. Brandon Jacobs should run for 1,100 yards and 14 TDs on the low side, but his upside is 1,500 yards and 18 TDs. (Handcuff: Ahmad Bradshaw) (Bye: Week 10) 13. Marion Barber, Dallas: We touted him as a top 5 pick last season, but he couldn't adjust to the full-time role. Coach Jerry would like to get the ball in Felix Jones' hands more often this season, and bring Barber in for short yardage/goaline/finisher role. An underrated pass receiver (96 catches in the past 2 seasons), the Barbarian could get back to his double-digit TD ways. We like Barber, but Felix Jones is more explosive and will work his way into a time-share. Still, Barber's ability to get into the end zone makes him a solid RB2 with upside. (Handcuff: Felix Jones) (Bye: Week 6) 14. Clinton Portis, Redskins: A tale of two halves, the Hurricane ran for 944 yards and 7 TDs in the first half of 08' . Portis broke down in the second half , only gaining 281 yards in final five games. The Redskins are ready to get Ladell Betts more involved early in the year to prevent Kid Bro Sweets from breaking down late. We worry his mileage is too high to be an elite back anymore and that his best years are behind him. Although C.P. may have lost a step or two, he is still capable of 1200 yards and 8-10 TDs. (Handcuff : Ladell Betts) (Bye : Week 8) 15. Ryan Grant, Packers: After holding out for most of training camp in search of a new contract, Grant injured his hamstring before the start of the regular season. The injury lingered for most of the season as Grant struggled to find the end zone until week 7. He finished the season with 1,319 total yards and 5 TDs . In the final eight weeks of the season only six other RBs had more rushing yards than Grant. He won't be a force in PPR leagues, but now healthy, we can see Grant improving last years numbers easily to 1,500 total yards and 12 TDs. (Handcuff: Brandon Jackson) (Bye: Week 5) 16. Pierre Thomas, Saints: Pierre? Sounds like a snooty Frenchman selling maps under the Eiffel Tower, but this Pierre is anything but. He is a talented, every down back that scored 9 TDs in the last 6 games of the year and made everyone forget about Reggie Bush being the savior for the Saints. Not only a sleeper, but a second round talent that can be had in the fourth round. We think Pierre brings some steadiness to a shaky Saints run game and handles the bulk of the carries. Reggie Kardashian is mostly a slot guy, who has proved he can't run in between the tackles. (Bye : Week 5) 17. Kevin Smith, Lions: We have already touted him as a big time sleeper, as we love his upside for this upcoming year. It took about four weeks for him to beat out incumbent starter Rudi Johnson, but he thrived in the second half of the season: 671 yards, 4 TDs. In his new offense, we believe he will be relied on more in the passing game (39 catches last season) and will be given more opportunities to score on a team that can only get better (0-16), right? (Handcuff: Maurice Morris) (Bye : Week 7) 18. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos: Josh McDaniels came out in July and stated that rookie RB Knowshon is the starter. Well, at least that heated competition with Correll Buckhalter, LaMont Jordan, Peyton Hillis, Ryan Torain, Andre Hall, and Selvin Young has been decided. Knowshon has the weight of the 2009 season on his shoulders as McDaniels has really not made a good decision thus far as head coach. We like his chances for success as the Broncos have a great offensive line, exceptional outside threats, and he has the ability to be an every down back from the first snap. (Handcuff: Correll Buckhalter) (Bye : Week 7) 19. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins: In week 3 of 2008, the Dolphins unleashed the "wildcat" offense on a unsuspecting Patriot defense. The result was 5 total TDs for Ronnie Brown and he won countless owners their games. He ended the year with 10 TDs, and probably cost the same owners who thought he could repeat that magic a playoff spot. Granted, he was coming off ACL surgery and 2007 was the number one RB before going down to injury 7 games in. We see his numbers from last year surfacing again, but with the TDs being spread throughout the season. (Handcuff : Ricky Williams) (Bye : Week 6) 20. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: A toe injury kept Stewart from overtaking the starting role in the Panthers running game and was forced to share with DeAngelo Williams. DeAngelo flourished while Stewart gained 836 yards rushing and tied for 8th in the NFL with 10 rushing TDs. Stewart fits the bruising mold that John Fox likes and look for him to split carries with Williams and be a nice RB2/flex for fantasy owners. Don't be scared of the 2 back system employed by the Panthers. In fact, on several occassions, both backs rushed for 100 yards in the same game. (Bye: Week 4) 21. Joseph Addai, Colts: We smell a bust. After ranking him in the top five last season, we have seen enough to believe he does not have what it takes to be an every down back. His 544 yards and 3.4 YPC can attest to that fact. The Colts know it too, and they drafted accordingly (Donald Brown). Take him as your RB2 at your own risk, but he is better suited as your RB3/flex. We aren't going anywhere near Addai, but he does have value if he falls into the 3rd round or below. Don't reach for this one time elite RB, as he is not that anymore. (Handcuff: Donald Brown) (Bye: Week 6) 22. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers: Thrived behind the Giants O-line and it didn't hurt that defenses were "softened" up by the bruiser Jacobs, but Ward showed flashes of being an every down back with a 5.6 YPC and 41 catches. Now, he has his chance. He could thrive in the new zone blocking scheme the Bucs are implementing, but will probably lose short yardage and goaline carries to Earnest Graham. He will be a solid RB2 or RB3 with upside for the upcoming season. (Handcuff: Earnest Graham) (Bye : Week 8) 23. Thomas Jones, Jets: We touted him as sleeper last season, because of the arrival of Favre and improvement of the offensive line. With Favre one and done, the offense will be led by rookie Mark Sanchez, which have as much success as an obese contestant on FOX's "Hole in the Wall". He skipped OTA's, he has a new head coach with no alliance to him, he will be seeing eight man fronts on a regular basis, and his replacement has already been drafted (rookie Shonn Greene). It's time to declare one of last years biggest sleepers, one of this years biggest busts. (Bye : Week 9) 24. Larry Johnson, Chiefs: Yes, he punched a girl at a bar right in her face. Yes, it cost him 3.5 million in guaranteed money. Yes, Todd Haley's offense calls for throws, and lots of them. Yes, LJ could thrive in this offense as a pass catcher and goaline back. The offensive line allowed 4.8 YPC last season, so the running lanes will be there when they decide to run. Matt Cassell does not have the big arm, so expect lots of dump offs to LJ, and just like Hightower last year (10 TDs), Johnson will be given every opportunity to become the goaline back. He won't put up the same numbers like he did in 2006, but as a 7th or 8th round pick, good luck finding a sleeper with his upside. (Handcuff: Jamaal Charles) (Bye: Week 8) 25. Marshawn Lynch, Bills: We love his potential, and his numbers (1,300 yards, 47 receptions, 9 TDs) had every indication that he could become an elite back. Then he decided to get involved with a hit-and-run, and then concealed a loaded pistol (at least he didn't go with Plax to the club). He has been suspended for the first three games, and although he will try to appeal...the Bills brought in Dominick Rhodes and already have Fred Jackson around to take the pressure off. Fred Jackson looks to carve into Lynch's touches no matter what kind of suspension is handed down and therefore take away Marshawn's value. (Handcuff: Fred Jackson) (Bye : Week 9) 26. Darren McFadden, Raiders: He has Speed. He has good hands. He has skinny legs. He cannot break tackles upon first contact. Many believe he will be the breakout RB of the year, we disagree. Michael Bush and Justin Fargas are both around and Run DMC does not not have the ability to be an every-down back. (Handcuffs: Justin Fargas/Michael Bush) (Bye: Week 9) 27. Willie Parker, Steelers: "Fast" Willie was never a feature back at North Carolina, so the beating he has taken since 2005 may be more than he can bear. Rashard Mendenhall was drafted to take some of the burden off, but when Willie was injured, Rashard met Ray Lewis and received a broken shoulder blade. Melwede Moore became the savior for all who owned him. So, where does this leave Parker? We believe he can still get around 1,000 yards and 6-7 TDs, but his leash will be short with Mendenhall breathing down his neck and Moore coming in on third downs. (Handcuff: Rashard Mendenhall) (Bye : Week 8) 28. LenDale White, Titans: Did Lendale eat Thanksgiving dinner before he played in the game against Detroit, last season? The way his gut was hanging over his belt, it reminded me of my uncle after he unbuckles his belt to allow his stomach to hang loose. Word on the street is LenDale has tightened up his diet and started 7 minute abs. Although he did play second fiddle to stud RB, Chris Johnson, he still managed to score a whopper...err whopping 15 TDs. Supposedly, he has lost 30 lbs in the off-season, but we know what the Titans know: LenDale is unmotivated, constantly hungry, lazy, and fat. He does have the potential and will continue to feast on CJ's goaline attempts, so 12-15 TDs is not out of the question. (Bye : Week 7) 29. Reggie Bush, Saints: He's versatile. He's fast and elusive. He dates Kim Kardashian (Well, not anymore..terezowens.com was the first to break the story). He lost the starting RB job in the Big Easy, to a guy named Pierre. He's more of a tease to fantasy owners than Kim and Ray J's sex video, but always shows flashes of brilliance. He has had problems staying healthy and running between the tackles, but Sean Payton finds ways to get the ball in his hands to make plays. A PPR league must (52 catches in 10 games last season), his rushing totals may never be elite, but at the end of the day owners will feel satisfied with his ability to grab 80 balls, get 1,200 total yards, and score 8 TDs. A perfect "flex" back this season, look to pounce in the late middle rounds, when other owners have soured on him. (Bye : Week 5) 30. Cedric Benson, Bengals: Go ahead, laugh. I can wait. It's OK, I understand. Benson had been a joke since his rookie year. Until last December, when Captain Benson quietly delivered 282 yards and a TD in a Ryan Fitzpatrick led offense. Carson Palmer is back and the Bengals offense could be potent again, and Benson is the RB by default. Remember when Rudi Johnson just chugged along in this offense for 1,400 yards and 12 TDs? Was he any more talented than Benson? Probably not. If Benson is finally clean and sober, he could do the same. (Bye: week 8) 31. Chris "Beanie" Wells, Cardinals: Since 1985, the Cardinals have had only one 1000 yard rusher (Edgerrin James, 2007). They hope they don't have to wait another 22 years for the next, which is why they drafted Chris "Beanie" Wells in the 1st round. Although they do have Tim Hightower, they believe that Beanie is the answer to their woeful running game. They return their entire offensive line, have Russ Grimm coaching them up, and have all the weapons in the world on their team. This could mean great things for Beanie. Look for Hightower to split time early in the year, but we think Beanie will separate himself at some point. (Bye: Week 4) 32. Felix Jones, Cowboys: As discussed in our sleeper article, Felix Jones should jump on the fantasy radar faster than Fergie made the Black Eyed Peas a household name. With elite speed and quickness, he will be given every opportunity to succeed even as a running mate to Marion Barber. Expect a time-share, but Felix is the more explosive of the two backs, and will see ample time in the backfield. (Bye : Week 6) 33. Jamal Lewis, Browns: Remember when he ran for 2,000 yards with the Ravens back in 2003? Then he revived his career in 2007 in Cleveland, but 2008 started a steady decline which we see continuing into 2009. He will be 30 when the season starts and with a new coaching staff in place, they will look for play makers to make this offense go. Lewis is no longer a play maker, and we will look for Jerome Harrison or rookie James Davis to take carries or take his job entirely by season's end. Lewis could be on the shortest leash of all NFL running backs. (Handcuff: Jerome Harrison/James Davis) (Bye : 9) 34. Julius Jones, Seahawks: He got his chance with a new team, in a new city, but once again he disappointed fantasy owners. He fell out of favor with Mike Holgren in the second half of last season, and will have every opportunity to impress the "new" coaching staff. Maurice Morris is gone leaving Jones to the feature back duties, and T.J. Duckett to his short yardage/goaline duties. Second year man, Justin Forsett could emerge if Jones falls flat again in 09'. Jones could reach 1000 yards, but don't expect more than a couple TDs. Duckett will vulture about 10 of them this year. (Handcuff: T.J. Duckett) (Bye: Week 7) 35. Darren Sproles, Chargers: Explosive as a stick of dynamite, the puny Sproles (5'5) became big-time in the playoffs, scoring 3 TDs in 2 games while subbing for an injured L.T. This season, he comes with the franchise tag and higher expectations. Note this: he scores every 15 times he touches the ball, and if the Changers give him only 10 touches per game, he will score 10 TDs over the course of the season. With upside like that, why would you want to waste a pick on the slew of run-of-the mill RBs that surround him in the rankings. We here always side with upside, and very few RBs will give the amount of upside that Sproles can bring in rushing and receiving. (Bye : Week 5) 36. Fred Jackson, Bills: Worthy of this pick based on the fact that will be the starter for the first three games, while Marshawn Lynch serves his suspension. Fred Jackson has impressed every time he gets in the game, averaging 4.8 YPC and 30 catches over the last 2 seasons. In his last start, he logged 27 carries for 136 yards in the season finale against the Patriots, which proves he has the trust of the coaching staff. A high-upside pick, we wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a total timeshare when Lynch returns. ( Bye : Week 9) 37. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants: An integral part of the Giants 2007 playoff run, he took a backseat last year to Derrick Ward and fell to 3rd on the Giants depth chart. He showed flashes of brilliance when coming in for clean-up late in games. His 96 yards on 9 carries against the Ravens week 11 showed what he could do when given the chance and was almost the first back to gain 100 rushing against the Ravens D in 3+ seasons. Andre Brown was drafted and Danny Ware (a camp battle to keep an eye on) is still around, but if Bradshaw can hold them off for the backup role in New York, his fantasy value will be very relevant. (Bye : 10) 38. LeSean McCoy, Eagles: Early reports from training camp have coaches describing this rookie as "dazzling". We love his prospects this season, especially in keeper/dynasty leagues. He is a Wetsbrook clone with the same skill set that will be utilized to it's full potential by Andy Reid and company. For Westbrook owners, he is an absolute must handcuff and may have to be taken a round or two early if he has a strong preseason. Look, we here at fantasyfanplay.com have always loved Brian Westbrook, but after too many injuries, the fact he is turning 30 before the season, and his inconsistent ways over the last few seasons (30 points one week, 2 the next) all have us believing the future could be now for McCoy. (Bye : Week 4) 39. Donald Brown, Colts: Joseph Addai has not been able to capitalize on being the feature back for the Colts and was in a 50/50 timeshare with Dominic Rhodes last year (that's when he played, he missed 4 contests). Bill Polian has been a master on draft day, and Donald Brown was his prize catch this year. He compared Brown to another RB he drafted once upon a time, Thurman Thomas. Brown should make an immediate impact even if he is in a timeshare, and may take over the starting job sometime during the season. ( Bye : Week 6) 40. Ray Rice, Ravens: He's #1 on the Ravens depth chart, but we know they like to use all three of their RBs week in and week out. We believe Rice has the tools to be a every-down back and OC Cam Cameron has made a career out of producing stud fantasy backs. LeRon McClain goes back to being a FB and will most likely be called upon for short yardage and goaline duties. Willis McGahee never showed the coaching staff a hard work ethic last season and has fallen on the depth chart. If Rice can have a strong training camp and pre-season then his stock will rise and he will shoot up this list ( Bye : Week 7) 41. Tim Hightower, Cardinals: He was given the starting RB role halfway through the season, but his 2.8 YPC is about as pathetic as striking out in slow pitch softball. He did catch 34 passes and score 10 TDs (8 of which were inside the 5 yard line), showing he is probably better suited for that type of role. Then the Cardinals drafted Beanie Weills and unless the rookie falters or gets injured, Hightower will be left to pick up the scraps. Which may not be such a bad thing. (Bye : Week 4) 42. Earnest Graham, Buccaneers: A 2007 fantasy hero, he faltered in 2008 due to injuries and ineffectiveness. The Bucs brought in ex-Giant Derrick Ward in the off season and we expect him to become the every-down back they need. Unfortunately for Graham, the skill set he possesses is the same as Ward, only Ward has more skill. (Bye : Week 8) 43. Leon Washinton, Jets: By far the most explosive player on the Jets offense and special teams, Washington does not have the physical make-up to be an every down back. Rex Ryan will have a RBBC, with Washington getting touches as receiver out of the backfield and as a punt returner. He has more value in PPR and individual return yard leagues, but could make for a nice RB3/flex if the Jets give him the opportunities. (Bye : Week 9) 44. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers: Has more power and overall skill then starter Willie Parker, but his one start ended in a broken shoulder blade delivered by the Reverend Ray Lewis. Willie Parker is in a contract year and is reportedly feeling better than he has in years. So, Mendenhall may have to wait till 2010 to reach his full potential, but we have a hunch his time may come in 2009. (Bye : Week 8) 45. Willis McGahee, Ravens: After being accused of not having a good work ethic by the new coaching staff last season he lost carries and the confidence of the new coaches. The Ravens drafted Ray Rice and LeRon McClain emerged as the go-to back. Rice will start the season as #1 on the depth chart, but Willis still has a chance to prove himself....will it be too late? (Bye : Week 7) 46. Fred Taylor, Patriots: The Pats backfield options are about as frustrating as Hollywood remaking the Karate Kid with Will Smith's kid. Sammy Morris, Lawrence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and even Benjarvis Green-Ellis all took turns running the ball last season. Now, the Pats grab a 32 year old RB, and we are about as excited as we are for Jaden Smith's decision to take out the 'crane kick' in his upcoming remake. Well, SOMEONE has to run the ball for the Pats this season and Taylor in the best RB on the roster. If he hold up he could make for a solid #3 RB in most formats. (Bye : 8) 47. Chester Taylor, Vikings: Our #1 RB needs a handcuff, so why not a former 1,200 yards rusher who pass blocks and catches passes. The way AP runs, Taylor could get thrust into action and put solid stats running behind the monster Vikings O-line. If Peterson can learn to block and catch as well as he runs, Taylor will be less and less involved in the offense. Taylor will get 10 or so touches a game, but if AP gets injured, he would be a huge addition to fantasy rosters. (Bye : Week 9) 48. Michael Bush, Raiders: One of our favorite sleepers, not only because we believe McFadden will be a bust, but we also believe Bush has the skill set of a young Jerome Bettis. For a 250lb back he has tremendous feet and quickness. The Raiders can and will run the ball effectively and if Bush has a strong pre-season then move him up this list quicker than it takes McFadden to get injured again. (Bye : Week 9) 49. Jerious Norwood, Falcons: Shifty and quick, Norwood brings an element to the Falcons backfield that Turner does not. The Falcons want to get the ball in his hands more for his break-away ability, evidence by his 5.8 YPC for his career. The Falcons have been saying that for the last two years, so we are pessimistic that they will follow through with their promise. Regardless, Norwood is a handcuff option for Michael Turner and possesses big play ability. ( Bye : Week 4) 50. Shonn Greene, Jets: The Jets moved up in the draft to get this 227 lb thumper. With Thomas Jones on the decline and Leon Washington not able to handle full-time duties, Greene may jump right into the mix. Early camp indications are that Greene has lived up to the billing. The Jets could be young on offense which means a few more mistakes, but it could be very rewarding as well. (Bye : Week
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2009 WR -Season Rankings ( Top Wide Recievers )

. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals: Nevermind the 1,431 yards and 12 TDs during the regular season, his 546 yards and 7 TDs in the postseason has propelled him to the number 1 WR spot. He has Warner slinging the ball like it's 1999, Boldin at his side, and an improved running game to take the pressure off the Warner and company. His leaping ability and exceptional hands make him a match-up nightmare, the only question is: how early do you take him? (Bye: Week 4) 2. Andre Johnson. Texans: It didn't matter if it was Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, AJ dominated week in and week out (throw out the week where he went up against superfreak corner Nnamdi Asomugha, 2 catches for 19 yards). The aggressive offense the Texans run allowed him to achieve 115 catches, 1,575 yards, and 8 TDs in 2008. Look for Johnson to dominate in PPR leagues while improving on his TD totals. (Bye : Week 10) 3. Randy Moss, Patriots: After Brady went down, the Patriots were unable to consistently complete the ball down field under Matt Cassell. Cassell spent most the time checking down to Wes Welker and Kevin Faulk. With Brady back at 100%, look for the longball to return to New England and Moss to flourish once again. There is no reason to believe Moss cant return to 1,400 yards and 15 TDs. (Bye : Week 8) 4. Calvin Johnson, Lions: The trio of Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky, and Dante Culpepper's gut did not strike fear into opposing defenses, but somehow Megatron managed to tie for league lead in TD receptions (12) despite only getting 14 red zone targets. Scott Linehan in the new OC and he will throw in the red zone quite often to this 6'5 230lb behemoth. The Culpepper/Stafford combo doesn't get us too excited, but look at what he was working with last season. (Bye: Week 7) 5. Reggie Wayne, Colts: We are not sure why, but Wayne seems to be slipping in most mock drafts this summer. After Peyton's knee surgery, the entire Colts offense struggled. He has the trust of Peyton, a younger running mate in Anthony Gonzalez, and a more effective running game with the addition of Donald Brown. Look for Wayne to get back to 1,400 yards and 10 TDs. (Bye: Week 6) 6. Steve Smith, Panthers: The little angry WR was suspended the first 2 games of the year after breaking a teammates nose in training camp, but still managed 78 catches for 1,421 yards and 6 TDs. We would like to see an increase in TDs, but it seems unlikely as he averages about 7 per year in the Panthers run-based offense. Enjoy the string of 100 games and infrequent TDs. (Bye: Week 4) 7. Greg Jennings, Packers: With the bearded fellow taking the reigns from the legend, Jennings' TDs dropped from 12 to 9 in 08', but his yards increased by 372 yards and catches by 27. Jennings will never be confused with a burner, but his amazing open field instincts and that fact that Rodger's has the cannon arm to get him the ball deep makes him a sure fire WR1. (Bye : Week 5) 8. Roddy White, Falcons: No one expected a follow-up to his breakout season in 07' as soon as rookie QB Matt Ryan was named starter. Not only did he match his production form the previous season, he surpassed to the tune of 88 catches, 1382 yards, and 7 TDs. With defenses focused on stopping Michael Turner, Matt Ryan's maturation, and Tony Gonzalez having been brought in to roam the middle, look for White to continue to stretch the field and put up WR1 numbers. Also, White is in a contract year, which means he will playing for a big contract as well (signed a big deal in August). (Bye : Week 4) 9. Anquan Boldin, Cardinals: Anquan has made it quite clear for the past 2 seasons that is unhappy with his current contract. Trade rumors swirled before and during the NFL draft, as the Giants, Eagles, and Ravens were all rumored to take the disgruntled WR. Boldin, the constant professional will most likely show up to training camp, be partnered with Larry Fitzgerald, miss at least 3 games due to injury, catch passes from Kurt Warner, and make all the tough catches that we are accustomed to. (Bye : Week 4) 10. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs: Let the D-Bowe show begin. Todd Haley comes over from the high flying Cardinals, with a new shiny QB and an offense that will pass,pass, pass, and pass some more. Bowe, now in his third season, is primed for a breakout campaign as his numbers have risen in every category for the past 2 seasons. Can Haley work the same magic in KC that he did in the desert? The loss of Gonzalez means more double teams, but Bowe is by far the most talented WR on the roster. (Bye : Week 8) 11. Marques Colston, Saints: The #1 WR in the big play offense of the Big Easy could easily be a top 5 WR this season IF he has healed up from off-season microfracture surgery. Drew Brees made Lance Moore a fantasy savior in his stead last season, but once Colston was back from injury he was once again the favorite target on Bourbon Street. As long as he doesn't have any set backs in training camp or the pre-season, look for his numbers to return to those of 2007: 70/1,200 /11 TDs. (Bye: Week 5) 12. Terrell Owens, Bills: The guy can't help but be a cancer to any locker room. Go ask Jeff Garcia, Donovan McNabb, and now Tony Romo ("That's MY quarterback!"). Trent Edwards will be his new target if and when he fails to throw the ball to him on every play, but we think he still can produce his typical numbers: 1,200 yards, 10 TDs, and 15 drops. Early reports out of Bill's training camp say T.O. is showing a veteran presence and is helping the younger players. If the Bills start out slow, look for that "leadership" to go by the wayside in favor of shouting matches on the sidelines. Something to think about: in his first year playing for Phili he had 1,2oo yards and 14TDs (in 14 games); in his first year playing for Dallas he had 1,180 yards and 13TDs. He's playing on a one year deal and if he plays nice as he comes across on VHI's: "The T.O. Show" then he could be tremendously undervalued this season. (Bye: Week 9) 13. Brandon Marshall, Broncos: Here we go again, another WR not satisfied with their current contract. After bidding the Denver fans adieu on his website after demanding a trade, he reluctantly showed up to training camp. Another season, and more off the field problems for "Baby T.O."...he had another domestic dispute with his fiance, had hip surgery, and publicly blamed the Broncos training staff for misdiagnosing his hip. Despite all these issues, he is a force on the field and has the physical ability to be a top five WR. But questions remain. Can Josh McDaniels get him to play at the same level Shannahan did? Despite catching over 100 balls, will Marshall improve on his TDs totals (6) from last season? Will he get suspended (again) for his off the field problems? Will he capitalize on his talent during his contract year and force the Broncos or someone else to give him the big payday he thinks he deserves? (Bye : Week 7) 14. Wes Welker, Patriots: The little white rabbit always seems to be open in the middle of the field for short dump-offs and intermediate routes. He will easily get back over 100 catches, but his TD totals will remain in the 4-6 range as long as Randy Moss is catching jump balls in the back of the end zone. A PPR league stud, look for Welker with an earlier pick in that scoring format and a WR with high upside in all other formats. (Bye: Week 8) 15. DeSean Jackson, Eagles: Remember when McNabb and T.O. were besties and they were turning the fantasy world upside down? Well, that was a long time ago when Owens was ripping off sit-ups in his driveway and also the last time the Eagles have Had a decent weapon at WR for Donovan. Last season, the diminutive WR out of Cal. was the first drafted and declared "the best WR in the class" by Jerry Rice. He showed flashes of brilliance followed by complete breakdowns in his route running and attitude. Those pundits of the "rookie wall ",fail to realize his playoff stats (207 yards and a TD) when he faced 3 stud CB's: Antoine Winfield, Corey Webster, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. He has the trust of McNabb, and if he can get his maturity issues straightened out, we seem him as a big time sleeper in 2009. (Bye : Week 4) 16. T.J. Houshmanzadeh, Seahawks: He somehow caught 92 passes on an offense led by Woderlic whiz Ryan Fitzpatrick and got his ticket out of Cincinnati. He journey's to the great northwest and joins a team that has been searching for a #1 WR since the days of Steve Largent. Matt Hasselbeck would like to forget 2008, and starting throwing to his new toys. If Hasselbeck's back holds up, look for Housh to be the centerpiece of Greg Knapps offense. The last time Hass was healthy and he threw to a possession type receiver he hit Bobby Engram for 94 passes, T.J. is younger, bigger, stronger, faster, and more talented than Engram. Draft accordingly. (Bye : Week 7) 17. Vincent Jackson, Chargers: Finally, after years of touting him as the next big thing at receiver Jackson was able to capitalize after years of dropping wide open passes and missed opportunities. Rivers and Jackson became a lethal combination (almost 1,100 yards and 7 TDs) after LT and Gates went down to injury, and the overrated Chris Chambers failed to deliver, again. Jackson has the size (6'5) and speed to become a match up nightmare, but with L.T. and Gates returning from their various injuries, can V-Jax still get targeted by Rivers enough to be an elite option? (Bye : Week 5) 18. Anthony Gonzalez, Colts: Our Breakout candidate of the year and sleeper finds himself in a perfect situation. Peyton Manning is his QB, Reggie Wayne demands double teams, he is coming into his third season, and Marvin Harrison is gone. It wasn't long ago the Wayne and Harrison were both top ten WRs, look for Wayne and Gonzalez to bring that back to the explosive Colts offense. (Bye: Week 6) 19. Roy Williams, Cowboys: 19 catches in 10 games as a Cowboy last season. 19! T.O. is gone and the #1 WR position is his, but will he be able to capitalize or show the inability to become a #1 WR like he did in Detroit? He said this is the first off season in his life that he lifted weights and he has attempted to earn a rapport with QB Tony Romo. If he is targeted anywhere near the 140 times T.O. was last season, his numbers will be good by default. (Bye: Week 6) 20. Braylon Edwards, Browns: We dropped the ball on Braylon's ranking last year, or did he just drop too many balls? Either way, inconsistent QB play and a bad case of the dropsy's caused Braylon to be a bust last season and end up on the Browns trading block this off season. Eric Mangini brings his conservative offense to the Dawg Pound, so don't except and giant leap forward in Braylon's numbers, but his talent alone could make him a viable WR2. (Bye: Week 9) 21. Chad Ochocinco, Bengals: Obviously, the loss of Carson Palmer hurt his value as Fitzpatrick failed to get anything resembling a passing game going. His antics have gone from entertaining to annoying, but one thing is for certain this season: his value might never be lower and his upside never higher. Carson Palmer is healthy, ball hawk T.J. Houshmanzadeh is gone, and Chad has something to prove besides he can't box a lick. McDonald's coke is what fuels his 4.3 speed and we hope he can regain his WR1 numbers while being picked at a WR2 discount. Boys and girls, that is what we like to call a sleeper. (Bye : Week 8) 22. Santonio Holmes, Steelers: He may of tip-toed his way to Superbowl history, but his regular season production was sub-par with zero 100 yard games and 5 TDs. Nate Washington left for Nashville and Hines Ward still is the top option at Hines Field. If Holmes can build upon his success in the postseason, (he had a 65 TD against Baltimore and 131 yards a TD against the Cardinals) then he can become a viable fantasy option for owners. We won't hold our breath. (Bye: Week 8) 23. Bernard Berrian, Vikings: News broke that Favre will stay retired and we sighed, knowing that Berrian will once again be teamed with a sub-par QB. The Vikings did bring in Sage Rosenfels, who is a crafty veteran with very little skills (news out of Vikings camp was that he was third on the depth chart behind John David Booty). Incumbent starter Tavaris Jackson has the mobility and arm strength to utilize the speedy WR, but between Jackson and Ferotte he only mustered 48 catches, 964 yards, and 7 TDs. We can only dream what would of happened with Brett faking hand-offs to AP and throwing bombs to Berrain. (Bye : Week 9) 24. Antonio Bryant, Buccaneers: The troubled WR found a home in Tampa Bay, and with a team of QB Jeff Garcia and offensive guru Jon Gruden he thrived. He had six 100 yard games, including a 200 yard , 2 TD effort at Carolina in week 14. He had 575 and 5 TDs in his last 5 games, but Garcia is now in Oakland and Gruden is on the unemployment line. Enter Raheem Morris and a QB trio of Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, and Josh Freeman. Bryant has the #1 WR spot locked down and help from free agent Derrick Ward and ex-Brown Kellen Winslow Jr. Can he produce while under the franchise tag, with a huge payday looming or will he return to being the malcontent he was in Dallas, Cleveland, and San Fransisco? (Bye : Week 8) 25. Eddie Royal, Broncos: Eddie who? That's what we were thinking when this rookie shot up the depth chart in Bronco's training camp last year. We thought he could produce in Shenanigans offense, but he far exceeded our expectations in year one. Year two may be tricky for Royal, with a new offense, new QB, and new head coach. His 91 catches, 980 yards (not to mention he had 110 yards rushing), and 5 TDs was solid in 2008. Look for McDaniels to try and get him involved in a Wes Welker-type role, and 100 catches could be in the works. (Bye : Week 8) 26. Kevin Walter, Texans: If you have read our sleepersection, you know we like Walter for several reasons this season. He is perceived as a small Wes Welker-type, but Walter stand at 6'3. He makes for an intriguing player as he was 5th in the NFL last season in red zone targets with 24 and will always draw single coverage with the array of weapons the Texans have at their disposal. He has 12 TDs in the past 2 seasons and while he enters the final year of his contract, we can see him producing career stats to the likes of 950 yards and 8 TDs. (Bye : Week 10) 27. Lee Evans, Bills: All he has ever wanted is running mate to take the pressure off of him. He has been a consistent deep threat for the Bills for several years, but they have never been able to compliment him. Josh Reed was a nice slot receiver, but when he went down Evans was flying solo again. Then in a desperate attempt, the Bills did something out of character for them, and signed drama queen Terrell Owens this off season. T.O. brings lots of drama, but will also free up Evans to fly down the field without being the focus of the opposing defenses. Evans should see an increase in stats across the board, but the presence of Owens will always be cause for concern. (Bye : Week 9) 28. Devin Hester, Bears: The argument can be made that he is much more valuable as a kick and punt returner than a WR. He has to prove that his numbers can be indicative of those of an above average WR to compensate for what will be lost on special teams. He caught 51 passes last season from the dastardly duo of Kyle Orton and Sexy Rexy. Now he gets a Cutler, a brash, big armed QB that will allow Hester to utilize his down field abilities. We see a scenario where Hester has an occasional big game, but will disappear from time to time. He makes for a very intriguing choice and sleeper candidate, but don't except Brandon Marshall to come running out of the tunnel at soldier field. (Bye : Week 5) 29. Santana Moss, Redskins: Just like the rest of the Redskins, Moss came out firing on all cylinders in the first eight games (658 yards, 5 TDs), then came to s screeching halt in the seco2nd half of the season (0 100 yard games and 1 TD). Jim Zorn was almost fired for his lack of creativity in his play-calling as the dink and dunk west coast offense was way too conservative and Moss was never utilized correctly. The Skins are hoping last years 2nd round draft pick Devin Thomas can step up as a possession receiver, because Antwaan Randle El is not the answer at split end. On the flip side, Moss played in all 16 games for the first time since 2005, but without a strong showing from Thomas in training camp/preseason it could be another up and down year for this talented WR. (Bye : Week 8) 30. Derek Mason, Ravens: Fresh out of retirement, Mason jumps into the top 30 like he never left. Mason has always been a guy to catch a ton of passes (80+ catches 6 out of the last 7 seasons), but his avg. yards per catch is always relatively low compared to the top tier of receivers. He did top 1000 yards last year for 7th time in 8 years, but managed only 5 TDs. Mason wants a bigger contract so he could have a big year, but we are wondering if Flacco and the run-first Baltimore offense can get him the ball. Still expect another solid year of roughly 80 catches and 1000 yards for the consistent veteran. (Bye : Week 7) 31. Laveranues Coles, Bengals: He replaces Houshmanzadeh and his 98 catches per year and is very capable of doing so. Carson's elbow should be good to go, Chris Henry has actually stayed out of trouble this off season, they have some semblance of a running game with Benson, and hopefully Chad 85 will pull his head out of his ass. Coles could end up being a very good value pick in the mid -to-late rounds of your draft for his potential in this high powered offense. (Bye : Week 8) 32. Hines Ward, Steelers: As a "real" football player, Hines Ward is one of our favorite players. Coming off knee surgery, it looks like he could finally be on the downside of his career. We won't call it yet, but with Santonio Holmes ready to emerge and Limas Sweed turning heads in training camp, 2008 could be the year. Ward is better suited for shorter routes and big blocks down field, but he could still be somewhat productive if the young guys fail to come through. If you the type of owner that looks for solid, but unspectacular stats week in and week out, then Ward is your guy. (Bye : Week 8) 33. Lance Moore, Saints: He benefited from the injuries of Marques Colston and Reggie Bush in the Saints aerial attack. He is a good route runner with soft hands and he gained the trust of Drew Brees when the Saints best weapons fell to injury. When Colston returned to the lineup Moore's targets became less and less. After a off -season shoulder surgery and the possible emergence of Robert Meachem we cannot endorse this WR even in the high powered bayou attack. (Bye : Week 5) 34. Donald Driver, Packers: Looking for excitement in the Packers offense, well ,Driver is not your guy. Jennings and Jones will provide the fireworks for Aaron Rodgers, and Driver will be a security blanket. Steady, and reliable, he can give you 1,000 yards and 5 TDs. Yawn. Look for the explosiveness to come from Jennings and Jones, with DD giving you the comfort of 60 yards a game. (Bye : Week 5) 35. Donnie Avery, Rams: He had a 3 game stretch last season where he produced 291 yards and 2 TDs, but was inconsistent down the stretch. Torry Holt is gone , and he becomes the #1 option on a team re-building for the future. The offensive line should be better at keeping Bulger upright, but the conservative play-calling may hinder his stats. Then again, can you really see this team not playing form behind on most Sundays, garbage time is fantasy time! (Bye : Week 9) 36. Ted Ginn, Dolphins: A dynamic WR and punt returner at Ohio State, he has yet to show that ability on a consistent basis in the NFL. Pennington's noodle arm can't get the ball down field more than 20 yards, so Ginn may have to wait until Henne is called upon to become the WR the Dolphins envisioned when they drafted him. (Bye : Week 6) 37. Miles Austin, Cowboys: He has size and speed, but his inability to stay healthy hampers him from becoming a bonified sleeper pick in 2009. The Cowboys love what they see in him, and T.O. is roaming in Buffalo which leaves a void for production in the WR position. Sam Hurd and Patrick Crayton will also be in the mix for the #2 WR spot, but Hurd cant stay healthy either and Crayton couldn't handle the #2 job. If healthy, look for Miles to really come into his own this season and bring a spark to your fantasy roster. (Bye : Week 6) 38. Mark Bradley, Chiefs: Bradley could never stay healthy in Chicago, but has found a home in KC. In a five game stretch last season he caught 23 balls with 3 TDs, and with the Haley aerial show coming to town Bradley could finally live up to his potential. (Bye : Week 8) 39. Steve Breaston, Cardinals: As the third WR on the Cardinals he produced over 1,000 yards receiving and 3 TDs...yes, as the THIRD WR. With Larry Fitzgerald taking on double coverage every play, Boldin drawing enough attention himself, and the propensity for the Cardinals to throw , leaves Breaston on single coverage down the field. Anquan Boldin has missed an average of 4 games per year for the past 2 seasons, Breaston made the best of his opportunity last season, and if/when Boldin misses some action Breaston will fill in for your squad nicely. (Bye : Week 4) 40. Nate Burelson, Seahawks: Nothing went right for the Seahawks passing game in 2009. Burleson's season started strong week #1, with 5 catches for 60 yards and TD. He then preceded to tear his ACL and the downward spiral of the Seahawks began. T.J. Houshmanzadeh was brought in to dominated the intermediate routes, and Hasselback is slated to be a 100% at the start of the season. This leaves Burleson to run the deep routes, which is what is excels at. He could bring some late round value to your draft as a WR4. (Bye : Week 7) 41. Chris Henry, Bengals: The Bengals claim they are impressed with his off the field behavior and even more impressed with his on the field performance. Yes, he has a Lil Pacman in him, but apparently his maturity level has impressed everyone in Bengals camp. There is a 90 balls that left this offense when Housh left, and Coles will not catch more than 60-70. That leaves the younger, more talented Henry plenty of opportunity in this offense that will feature a healthy Carson Palmer and refocused Ochocinco. Henry will be great value in the later rounds, and may revert back to his productive ways of 2006 (9 TDs) (Bye : Week 8) 42. Steve Smith, Giants: The other Steve Smith. A talented WR that has grown a rapport with Eli Manning and gained his QBs trust last season. Although he lacks the speed to be a deep threat, His crisp route running will give him the ability to catch around 80-90 balls in this offense. (Bye : Week 10) 43. Torry Holt, Jaguars: Holt hasn't posted a 100 yard game on grass turf since September of 2006, and the Jags play on grass. One rival coach has been quoted as saying :"He doesn't have anything left; his legs are gone". Yikes. Left someone else feel sentimental on draft day and pick this oft-injured, over-the-hill WR that is playing in a run first offense. (Bye : Week 7) 44. Dominique Hixon, Giants: After an impressive pre-season, Hixon could not capitalize after the shot heard round the Latin Quarter Nightclub. He led the team with 596 yards receiving, and the Giants were so impressed they drafted both Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden. Hixon could find himself back in the starting lineup, and if can bring more consistency to his game, his stats could be worthy of a spot on your bench. (Bye : Week 10) 45. Kevin Curtis, Eagles: The speed of which Jeremy Macklin can pick up the complicated Eagles offense will determine the value of Curtis. Curtis does not have the skills of DeSean Jackson or Macklin, and even though the Eagles throw 60% of the time, there may not be enough balls to go around. (Bye : 4) 46. Justin Gage, Titans: Obviously, the Titans were not happy with the production on their WRs last season as they brought in free agent Nate Washington and drafted Kenny Britt. Gage had a career best 6 TDs, but only caught 34 passes for 651 yards. With the Titans content on taking the air out of the ball and taking a shot down field only when necessary, Gage will have little fantasy impact in 2009. (Bye : Week 7) 47. Percy Harvin, Vikings: The multi-talented WR will line-up all over the field, and should be an explosive weapon in the Vikings offense. He has been turning heads in Vikings camp, but unfortunately, Brad Childress runs a boring, predictable offense in Minnesota. With his job on the line, Childres knows they will need every play maker to make it deep into the playoffs. With AP, and Berrian already in place, Harvin could be the difference maker. He is worth a late round pick to find out. (Bye : Week 9) 48. Jerricho Cotchery, Jets: When the Jets landed Farve, we believed Cotchery would be a great option in all leagues. That never came to fruition and he finished with 858 yards and 5 TDs. Now, Rex Ryan and his ultraconservative approach comes the Big Apple, along with a rookie QB. Cotchery is suited for a possession type role and may catch some passes, just don't expect big numbers in this offense from a guy who can't produce them anyway. (Bye : Week 9) recievers 49. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles: He was a steal in the 2009 draft and the Eagles will utilize his skills in their pass-happy offense. If he picks up the Eagles offense, then he could push Kevin Curtis for playing time. He and DeSean Jackson could make the best young duo in the league. 50. Michael Crabtree, 49ers: What is the deal with WRs? They always need attention, think they are bigger than the team, and are always holding out for more money. Now, Crabtree who hasn't played a down in the NFL or couldn't even workout at the combine is demanding the contract HE wants. Until he proves otherwise, he was the 10th overall pick and that is what he will be paid like. Rumor is, he is willing to sit out the whole year and go back into the 2010 draft...but who would take the risk after these shenanigans? If he signs before your draft, he will move up this list. (Bye : Week 6)
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